U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato are set to start a dialogue on currency rates when they meet this week in Washington. Their meeting should capture in vivid fashion the lack of clarity in U.S. trade policy at a time when Japanese decision makers are … … READ MORE >
U.S. trade policy
Market Minute: Remittances to Mexico from the U.S.
The economic interdependence between the U.S. and Mexico is significant and unwinding it will be painful on both sides of the border. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
While it is too early to quantify the tariffs’ overall impact, a rough estimate implies between a 0.5% and 0.75% drag on growth this year and a one-time 0.6% increase in prices. … READ MORE >
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the U.S., the new administration has set out to change this equation. Now, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Clash of the titans to cause further currency manipulation
The relative yield differentials between the U.S. and China point to the possibility that China will engineer a gradual, but large, depreciation in the yuan this year. … READ MORE >
How an escalating trade war will affect global growth, inflation and employment
If the tariffs stick, they will trim 0.36 percentage points from U.S. GDP growth over the next 12 months, and PCE inflation will increase by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What guacamole tells us about the cost of tariffs
Whether you make guacamole from scratch, as my grandmother Juanita liked to do, or buy pre-made spicy guacamole from Central Market in Austin, Tex., it’s going to cost more. … READ MORE >
Trump, tariffs and financial markets
Tariffs cannot be both a negotiating tactic and an offset that raises revenues to finance tax cuts. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: A look at the U.S. trade and current account balances
To narrow the U.S. trade and current account deficits, the Trump administration has said it would take the external route—using tariffs as leverage to narrow the deficits with the Chinese and other trading partners. … READ MORE >