We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
U.S. trade policy
With trade truce, U.S. and China avoid a decoupling, but devil is in the details
The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: New era for Asian currencies and the dollar?
Since the end of March, the U.S. dollar has lost 4.6% of its value versus the euro and 4.1% against the Japanese yen. As of May 7, the Taiwan dollar has gained a whopping 8.8% against the U.S. dollar. … READ MORE >
The U.S.-UK trade agreement that isn’t
A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding that over time may yield a productive framework for trade or not. … READ MORE >
Trade shocks, employment and the coming recession
Another disruption to U.S. supply chains through trade policy will mark the end of the current business cycle as the economy slips into recession. … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Currency politics, capital flows and U.S.-Japanese relations
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato are set to start a dialogue on currency rates when they meet this week in Washington. Their meeting should capture in vivid fashion the lack of clarity in U.S. trade policy at a time when Japanese decision makers are … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Remittances to Mexico from the U.S.
The economic interdependence between the U.S. and Mexico is significant and unwinding it will be painful on both sides of the border. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
While it is too early to quantify the tariffs’ overall impact, a rough estimate implies between a 0.5% and 0.75% drag on growth this year and a one-time 0.6% increase in prices. … READ MORE >
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the U.S., the new administration has set out to change this equation. Now, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. … READ MORE >