The American labor market bounced back in November with the creation of 227,000 jobs, a rebound from the hurricane-related distortions of October and further evidence that the labor market remains remarkably stable. Once one corrects for the noise in the data, the pace of hiring looks to be near ... READ MORE >
U.S. unemployment rate
Initial jobless claims climb amid holiday volatility
First-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 to 224,000 last week, in line with the 13-week moving average of 226,000 and a sign of a labor market where workers have a remarkable level of job security. With arrival of the holiday season, though, top-line claims will show volatility in ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The mystery of rising long-term unemployment
The American labor market by any definition remains strong and, in our estimation, stands at full employment. The numbers tell a story of resilience The unemployment rate has ranged between 3.4% and 4.3% over the past two years. The median duration of unemployment stands at 10 weeks, with initial ... READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
The October jobs report is to be taken seriously but not literally. Once one adds the downward revision of 112,000 jobs for August and September to the 12,000 gain in October, there was a decline in total employment of 100,000 inside the report. We would urge investors, firm managers and ... READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the rise in the unemployment rate since last year can be explained by the increase in the labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the United States. Even though ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: A soft landing in the economy
The U.S. August report was a solid if unspectacular one that reflected the type of non-inflationary job growth that will give Federal Reserve policymakers confidence as they embark on their long-awaited campaign to reduce rates. Once one adjusts for the benchmark revision, employment has been ... READ MORE >
Expect strong U.S. jobs report for August, but the devil is in the details
We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the U.S. jobs report is released on Sept. 6. In addition, we expect average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% on the month and for the year-ago figure to cool slightly to a 3.5% gain. The key to any ... READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report to show a gain of 200,000 jobs
Our provisional forecast for the July jobs report when it is released on Friday implies a net increase in total employment of 200,000 jobs with an easing in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4%. In addition, we forecast a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, which should translate to a 3.7% ... READ MORE >
As economy cools, Fed needs to cut rates
Growth, inflation and hiring in the United States are all cooling toward a more sustainable pace, which will most likely define the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve gets ready to reduce its restrictive policy rate. While the fiscal tailwinds that have bolstered the economy are ... READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
The labor market and inflation have finally come into balance. As Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said recently, the inflection point where unemployment risks could trump inflation risks “is getting nearer.” Now, the risk is that as the economy cools, hiring will slow ... READ MORE >