We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >
U.S. unemployment rate
Market Minute: Younger workers are doing just fine overall
The current unemployment rate of workers who are 20 to 24 years old stands at 8.6%, below the rate of recent economic expansions. … READ MORE >
Job gains in September bolster the case for a pause in rate cuts
The increase of 119,000 jobs in September will bolster the case of the hawks at the Federal Reserve to hold off on any rate cuts for now. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. September employment report preview
We expect an increase of 50,000 jobs in the delayed September U.S. jobs report when it is released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The declining labor supply, the jobless rate and Fed policy
If the labor force participation rate had held at its 2023-24 average of 62.6% and all else remained the same, the unemployment rate would be sitting near 4.85% compared with the current 4.24%. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims decline, but the recovery is still uneven
Initial claims fell to 217,000 for the week ending July 18, down from 221,000 in the prior week. The pre-pandemic average was 218,000.. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Stagflation lite to describe second half
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Unemployment expectations, job creation and the trade shock
The percentage of consumers who expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months soared to 65% in April, according to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment. … READ MORE >
Job growth cools in January amid revisions to labor force estimate
The tailwind in the American economy resulted in 143,000 jobs added in January and a decline in the jobless rate to 4%. … READ MORE >
American exceptionalism: Job gains of 256,000 to temper calls for further rate cuts
The American economy remains at full employment and will remain tight for the near future, which should temper calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. … READ MORE >