This economic commentary is dedicated to the memory of my friend the economics reporter Ben White. I shall miss talking economics, policy and baseball with him. Labor demand continues to increase at a remarkably strong pace, which removes the prospect of a July rate reduction and creates the sense that ... READ MORE >
U.S. unemployment rate
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
While it’s always good to identify risks to the economic outlook, too often market players mistake the condition of a few trees—there are always isolated problems—with the health of the forest. The March jobs report shows just how healthy the American labor market is, despite isolated criticisms. ... READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Until recently, the idea that economy could simultaneously have low levels of unemployment and low inflation seemed to be a fantasy. Conventional wisdom, after all, holds that when unemployment is low, businesses need to pay higher wages to attract workers, which pushes up the cost of goods and services, ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Robust hiring continued in February
Sustained demand for labor in the American economy was on vivid display on Friday as the Labor Department reported that 275,000 jobs were created in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its initial estimate of the January jobs report from 353,000 jobs created to 229,000 and the ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Labor market continues to cool
Cooler air permeating the nights as summer comes to an end is a perfect metaphor for an American labor market easing from the historically tight conditions of the past few years. In August, the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate settled in at 3.8%, according to Labor Department ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Strong close to year as wages remain elevated
We expect the December U.S. jobs report on Friday to show an increase in total employment of 220,000 positions, which would bring the total number of jobs created last year to roughly 4.53 million. While such a gain would fall below the three-month moving average of 263,000 through the end of ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Hiring slows as another 75-basis-point rate increase looms
The U.S. economy is proving far more resilient in the face of sustained pricing pressures than otherwise thought a short time ago. The economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slower than the 315,000 jobs in August but still a sign of a resilient labor market, according to Labor Department data ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Another robust month as employment increases by 315,000
American labor market dynamics remain tilted toward sustained strength in hiring and rising wages. In August, U.S. total employment increased by 315,000 while the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% (3.65%). The labor force participation rate advanced to 62.4% on the back of 786,000 people ... READ MORE >
Payroll employment returns to pre-pandemic levels
The unemployment rate in the United States, taken out to three decimal points, now stands at 3.458%, the lowest in 50 years and one that many of us will most likely not observe again in our career arcs. Perhaps more important, the labor market has reached a milestone: a general return to pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >