We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
unemployment rate
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
Slower pace of hiring in June bolsters case for Fed rate cut
The June jobs report should send a signal to the Fed that with inflation sitting at 2.6%, conditions are aligning for a rate cut in September. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise as the labor market marches toward normalization
Labor demand remained strong in May, bolstering hirings during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
December employment report caps an extraordinary year of 2.7 million jobs added
The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, closing out an extraordinary year that saw an increase of 2.7 million in total employment and a record 167 million Americans employed. … READ MORE >
U.S. November jobs report: This is what a soft landing looks like
Through November this year, the American economy has produced 2.58 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2% all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. … READ MORE >
Blowout employment report is a win for the American real economy
The American economy added 336,000 jobs in September, far above forecasts and showing that the labor market has yet to ease. … READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, reported by the Labor Department … … READ MORE >
Job openings fall as rate hikes take effect
In a sign that the chronically tight labor market may be easing, job openings plunged in August amid a slowdown in overall demand. … READ MORE >
Labor force dynamics: 60,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the jobless rate near 4.4%
Long-run changes in the labor force have slowed its growth and are likely to result in a shortage of workers even if the economy falls into recession. … READ MORE >