The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, closing out an extraordinary year that saw an increase of 2.7 million in total employment and a record 167 million Americans employed. During the past year, the unemployment rate averaged 3.6% and closed the year at 3.7% in the best year for labor ... READ MORE >
unemployment rate
U.S. November jobs report: This is what a soft landing looks like
This is what a soft landing looks like. Through November this year, the American economy has produced nearly 2.6 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2%, all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. This is not a recession but instead is a sustained expansion amid labor ... READ MORE >
Blowout employment report is a win for the American real economy
The U.S. September employment report, with a surprising gain of 336,000 jobs, surely exaggerates the true underlying pace of hiring that remains quite strong but not at the robust levels implied by the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate released on Friday. Once one considers the upward ... READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall as rate hikes take effect
In a sign that the chronically tight labor market may be easing, job openings plunged in August amid a slowdown in overall demand. That decline should come as an encouraging sign for the Federal Reserve, which has been targeting excess labor demand with aggressive interest rate hikes as it tries to ... READ MORE >
Labor force dynamics: 60,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the jobless rate near 4.4%
Long-run changes in the labor force have slowed its growth and are likely to result in a shortage of workers even if the economy falls into recession. Between 2008 and 2020, the labor force grew at an average rate of 0.06%. Assuming that does not slow further—it very well could because of ... READ MORE >
U.S. May jobs report: Robust gains in total employment as wage increases ease
American firms continued to hire workers at a torrid pace in May to meet strong demand amid a historically tight labor market and 8.3% inflation. Amid that robust increase in total employment of 390,000 in May, the three-month average annualized pace of average hourly earnings slowed to 4.3% on the ... READ MORE >
U.S. March jobs report: American labor market remains red hot
The American labor market remains red hot as the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age workers surged to 80.0% in March, up from 79.5% in February, and total employment increased by 431,000 jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The ... READ MORE >
December jobs report preview: Expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%
We expect a net gain in total employment of 475,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% when the jobs report for December is published on Friday. Strong job creation in higher-paying jobs in goods production, construction, manufacturing, business services and the financial sector ... READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Meeting the Fed’s full employment mandate
This is the first of four articles examining monetary and fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve’s response to the overriding issues of today’s economy. This article examines the Fed’s challenge in meeting its mandate for full employment. The second looks at the Fed’s other mandate, for price stability. ... READ MORE >