The U.S. September employment report, with a surprising gain of 336,000 jobs, surely exaggerates the true underlying pace of hiring that remains quite strong but not at the robust levels implied by the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate released on Friday. Once one considers the upward ... READ MORE >
unemployment rate
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall as rate hikes take effect
In a sign that the chronically tight labor market may be easing, job openings plunged in August amid a slowdown in overall demand. That decline should come as an encouraging sign for the Federal Reserve, which has been targeting excess labor demand with aggressive interest rate hikes as it tries to ... READ MORE >
Labor force dynamics: 60,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the jobless rate near 4.4%
Long-run changes in the labor force have slowed its growth and are likely to result in a shortage of workers even if the economy falls into recession. Between 2008 and 2020, the labor force grew at an average rate of 0.06%. Assuming that does not slow further—it very well could because of ... READ MORE >
U.S. May jobs report: Robust gains in total employment as wage increases ease
American firms continued to hire workers at a torrid pace in May to meet strong demand amid a historically tight labor market and 8.3% inflation. Amid that robust increase in total employment of 390,000 in May, the three-month average annualized pace of average hourly earnings slowed to 4.3% on the ... READ MORE >
U.S. March jobs report: American labor market remains red hot
The American labor market remains red hot as the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age workers surged to 80.0% in March, up from 79.5% in February, and total employment increased by 431,000 jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The ... READ MORE >
December jobs report preview: Expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%
We expect a net gain in total employment of 475,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% when the jobs report for December is published on Friday. Strong job creation in higher-paying jobs in goods production, construction, manufacturing, business services and the financial sector ... READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Meeting the Fed’s full employment mandate
This is the first of four articles examining monetary and fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve’s response to the overriding issues of today’s economy. This article examines the Fed’s challenge in meeting its mandate for full employment. The second looks at the Fed’s other mandate, for price stability. ... READ MORE >
November U.S. job data: A tale of two reports as unemployment rate fell to 4.2%
The American labor market tightened noticeably in November despite a slower pace of hiring, according to Labor Department data released Friday. Rarely has an estimate produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed such a divergence between the two surveys of the labor market—the establishment ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: The ‘real’ unemployment rate is 8.2%
The headline U3 unemployment rate of 4.8% for September is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States. Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology, those who are out of work and no longer looking for a job are not counted as unemployed and are not included ... READ MORE >