Expectations that wage growth would slow were dashed inside the U.S. jobs report for November as average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. The primary policy takeaway from the report is that the Federal ... READ MORE >
unemployment
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Even after a sharp increase in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate over the past 10 months, an inversion of the yield curve and a significant dislocation in equity and fixed-income markets, there is scant evidence of any slack in the American jobs market. The jobs report for October did not alter that ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly last week despite the impact of Hurricane Ian in Florida. New claims fell by 5.3% to 214,000, below the pre-pandemic average in 2019 as layoffs remain historically low, according to government data released Thursday. In the bigger context, new ... READ MORE >
New jobless claims fall to lowest level since April amid tight labor market
New claims for unemployment benefits fell by a sharp 16,000 last week to 193,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the fewest since April and well below the market's forecast, according to government data released Thursday. The decline comes amid a debate over how many jobs will be sacrificed to tame ... READ MORE >
After a strong recovery in Canada, economic headwinds set in
The Canadian economy has had a robust recovery from the lockdowns of the pandemic as pent-up consumer demand and generous government spending have fueled growth. But now with rising inflation, especially in food and energy prices, and a historically tight labour market, that growth is ... READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. In the best-case scenario, the Fed, by raising rates, reduces discretionary spending enough to stabilize prices, and the economy continues to ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise as producer inflation deflates for first time in 2 years
New claims for U.S. jobless benefits rose 5.6% in the first week of August to 262,000 as layoffs continued to pick up, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. While there has been a clear upward trend in new unemployment claims, the number remained relatively low compared to the ... READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand
Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. Since January, total employment has increased by 3.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has declined from 4% to 3.5%. With such a robust labor market, claims that the economy is in recession fall ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims in July continue rising layoffs trend
New filings for jobless benefits continued to beat market estimates to the upside, falling 1.9% to 256,000 for the week ending July 23. Given that the labor market is the main force keeping the economy from descending toward an economic trough, the initial jobless claims data released Thursday add ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report for June indicates no recession now
An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs in any given month, as the June employment report showed on Friday. The data released by the Labor Department strongly implied that the economy is not in recession, which is in line with our base case that the economy will ... READ MORE >