Friday’s unemployment rate of 5.2% for August is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States. Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics' way of measuring unemployment, those who are out of work and no longer looking for a job are not counted as unemployed, so they do not ... READ MORE >
unemployment
U.S. August employment report: Delta variant exerts a drag on hiring
What is obvious in the August jobs report that was released on Friday is that the delta variant has affected overall economic activity and hiring. Until a small portion of the public decides to get vaccinated, both the economy and hiring will be held hostage to the ebb and flow of the ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: After the deluge
First-time jobless claims decreased to 340,000 for the week ending Aug. 28, from an upwardly revised 354,000 the week before, while continuing claims fell to 2.75 million, according to government data released on Thursday. While the weekly churn in the labor market is always of paramount interest, that ... READ MORE >
August jobs report preview: Expect a hint of delta drag on hiring
We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. That seasonal hiring will add roughly 225,000 jobs to the top-line number, while the unemployment rate will decline ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Why the Fed is likely to talk about the unemployment gap at Jackson Hole
Underscoring the Federal Reserve’s shift in policy to flexible average inflation targeting is the idea that the best way to address inequality is through a lower unemployment rate. While the Fed’s traditional emphasis on inflation and monetary policy is not passé, the idea that the central banks should ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. Investors should anticipate more noise than signal from this data over the next three weeks because of holiday-induced distortions. Just as ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: How the “real” unemployment rate affects policy decisions
Even as the Labor Department reported on Friday that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.4%, it is probably an undercount. That’s not the intention, but instead stems from the long-held methodology of how the Labor Department determines who is in the labor force and who is not. Nevertheless, the ... READ MORE >
July employment report: Robust gains mark summer hiring peak
The U.S. economy is expanding in a robust manner and it should be of little surprise that hiring is on a tear, averaging 831,000 new jobs over the past three months as the service sector continues to gain pace. In July, the economy generated 943,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims still elevated at 385,000 as the economy expands
First-time jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 385,000 for the week ending July 31 while continuing claims for the week ending July 24 stood at 2.9 million, according to government data released Thursday. The top-line figure is close to the 13-week moving average of 404,100 and the four-week ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Education and service hiring to drive gains in July
We expect a net increase in total employment of 950,000 and a decline to 5.7% in the unemployment rate when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its jobs report on Friday. Our top-line estimate stands in contrast with the consensus forecast of 875,000 for the month, which would make for a ... READ MORE >