We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. That seasonal hiring will add roughly 225,000 jobs to the top-line number, while the unemployment rate will decline ... READ MORE >
unemployment
CHART OF THE DAY: Why the Fed is likely to talk about the unemployment gap at Jackson Hole
Underscoring the Federal Reserve’s shift in policy to flexible average inflation targeting is the idea that the best way to address inequality is through a lower unemployment rate. While the Fed’s traditional emphasis on inflation and monetary policy is not passé, the idea that the central banks should ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. Investors should anticipate more noise than signal from this data over the next three weeks because of holiday-induced distortions. Just as ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: How the “real” unemployment rate affects policy decisions
Even as the Labor Department reported on Friday that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.4%, it is probably an undercount. That’s not the intention, but instead stems from the long-held methodology of how the Labor Department determines who is in the labor force and who is not. Nevertheless, the ... READ MORE >
July employment report: Robust gains mark summer hiring peak
The U.S. economy is expanding in a robust manner and it should be of little surprise that hiring is on a tear, averaging 831,000 new jobs over the past three months as the service sector continues to gain pace. In July, the economy generated 943,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims still elevated at 385,000 as the economy expands
First-time jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 385,000 for the week ending July 31 while continuing claims for the week ending July 24 stood at 2.9 million, according to government data released Thursday. The top-line figure is close to the 13-week moving average of 404,100 and the four-week ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Education and service hiring to drive gains in July
We expect a net increase in total employment of 950,000 and a decline to 5.7% in the unemployment rate when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its jobs report on Friday. Our top-line estimate stands in contrast with the consensus forecast of 875,000 for the month, which would make for a ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims continue choppy descent
In the 71st week of an employment crisis, initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped again by 24,000 to 400,000 first-time claims for the week ending July 24. There remain 13.1 million people who are receiving some form of unemployment benefits. Of those, 3.2 million—or 25%—are receiving ... READ MORE >
GDP expands by 6.5% in second quarter as expansion takes hold
A global public health crisis resulting in a 31.4% decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter of last year has turned to expansion because of sustained robust fiscal aid and unorthodox monetary policy. The U.S. economy grew by 6.5% in the second quarter, marking the start of the current ... READ MORE >
Why the housing market is not in a bubble
Key takeaways Unlike in 2007, the surging housing market is in no danger of crashing. Inventories remain historically low. Demographic changes will bolster demand in the coming years. Buyers today are more credit-worthy than in the 2000s. Household balance sheets are also much ... READ MORE >