We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >
Last call on the current business cycle? U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April.
The labor market expanded at a solid pace in April, which should be taken as a positive given the price shock that will soon begin showing up. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A brief word about productivity and protectionism
The shift toward protectionism all the more ill-timed given the monumental investment into artificial intelligence and how it will drive innovation and productivity into the next generation. … READ MORE >
On the knife’s edge: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter
The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. heavy truck sales point to slowing economy
Production and sales of heavy trucks are slowing ahead of the shocks linked to tariffs and what will be further declines in demand by households and commercial ventures, data shows. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Unemployment expectations, job creation and the trade shock
The percentage of consumers who expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months soared to 65% in April, according to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment. … READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Recession Monitor
After significant disruption to trade policy and financial markets this year, we now forecast a 55% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Business confidence plunges amid sweeping tariffs
If this level of uncertainty persists, we should expect investment spending to begin to crater—especially as rising prices start to erode overall demand. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Credit default swaps and the sell America trade
Since the start of the most recent market turmoil, investors have pushed U.S. five-year credit default swaps roughly 20 basis points higher. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private sector deleveraging risk amid trade conflict
One should not discount the possibility of further financial volatility because of the leverage of non-financial bank intermediaries. … READ MORE >