U.S. interest rates have normalized as the economy and investors have adjusted to the regime change of rates remaining higher for longer. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Weak dollar policy to persist into 2026
Pushing down the dollar’s value has been a policy priority for the administration as it sought in part to make exports more attractive. … READ MORE >
American economy is a resilient beast even as job creation slows
Top-line growth advanced by 4.3% in the third quarter despite the adverse trade and immigration shocks the economy has absorbed over the past year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: When the Fed’s reserves go from abundant to ample
Those who wish to return to the way things were before the financial crisis, before the Fed expanded its balance sheet, are living in a fantasy world. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: How sticky wages and inflation affect interest rates
A neutral federal funds rate in the range of a 3% to 3.5% nominal rate is more appropriate than the zero real (inflation-adjusted) terminal rate that some are calling for. … READ MORE >
Dude, that was one flawed CPI report
Growth in inflation eased to a 2.7% pace overall, and to 2.6% excluding food or energy. Because of an inability to retroactively collect the October data, it is difficult to precisely identify why top-line inflation slowed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Deindustrialization and the rise in worker discontent
Workers are producing more, but they aren’t seeing the benefits. Class resentment has followed. … READ MORE >
The jobs data is out. If you are not confused, you are not paying attention.
Little clarity was provided by the combined October and November jobs data. The low-fire, low-hire jobs market remains intact as the unemployment rate continues to climb. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect November CPI to show 0.3% monthly increase
We expect both the top-line and core readings of the consumer price index to rise by 3% rise from a year ago when the data is released Thursday. … READ MORE >
The growth of government debt and its consequences for financial markets
The United States is borrowing roughly $7 billion per day to finance its operations with the deficit heading toward $2 trillion this fiscal year. … READ MORE >









