Stubborn and sticky inflation did not prevent the American consumer from tapping rising real incomes in November as the economy approached the traditional holiday season. Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used the 1.1% increase in ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The strange logic of economic populism and government shutdowns
The prospect of a government shutdown and another unnecessary standoff in Congress over raising the nation's debt ceiling are providing a lump of coal in Americans’ holiday stockings. At issue are a $110 billion disaster relief bill, an extension of the farm bill and a two-year proposed suspension ... READ MORE >
Global economic outlook for 2025: Modest growth amid trade tensions
Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast. This forecast accounts for an expectation of higher import taxes in the U.S. market, particularly for goods that flow through Chinese supply chains. Developed ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates as it signals a prudent pause to assess policy uncertainty
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday while communicating to policymakers and the public that its reductions will be on pause until it gets a better sense of the policy changes to come. We are updating our ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Three months ago, in the week before the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in the current cycle, the bond market was pricing in a two-year yield of 3.58%. The two-year yield has since risen to 4.23%, an increase of 65 basis points at a time when the Fed is cutting interest rates. Two-year yields are ... READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
As the yield on the 10-year Treasury advances toward 4.5%—which is our baseline forecast for next year—the inflation risk premium is supporting that move. The inflation risk premium is the compensation that investors demand for the possibility that inflation may rise, or fall, and that premium is ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
Ahead of this week’s policy decision by the Federal Open Market Committee and the publication of the November personal consumption expenditures price index, a look at the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate is in order. In the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections released in September, that ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. Given current growth and inflation dynamics, we expect that the Fed’s rate cuts will then be on pause until March at the ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Inside the University of Michigan’s survey on consumer sentiment for November, buying conditions for durable goods increased by more than 20%. Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. These purchases will bolster gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, ... READ MORE >
Hiring rebounded in November following weather-distorted October report
The American labor market bounced back in November with the creation of 227,000 jobs, a rebound from the hurricane-related distortions of October and further evidence that the labor market remains remarkably stable. Once one corrects for the noise in the data, the pace of hiring looks to be near ... READ MORE >