The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s October meeting provided unmistakable evidence of a split between hawks and doves, with a slight tilt toward the hawks. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The resilient U.S. prime-age workforce
The U.S. labor force participation rate among prime-age workers 25 to 54 stood at 83.7% in August—the most recent data available—just below the cyclical peak of 83.9% of August last year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. September employment report preview
We expect an increase of 50,000 jobs in the delayed September U.S. jobs report when it is released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rate expectations to weigh on the loonie vs. greenback
The Canadian dollar illustrates how growth differentials and diverging rate expectations have driven a wedge between the greenback and the loonie since July. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: No relief on horizon for mortgage rates
Increasing competition for scarce capital means higher long-term interest rates in general and elevated mortgage rates above 6% for 30-year fixed mortgage products. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: All I got from the crummy government shutdown is a 1.5% drag on GDP
Dislocation around government paychecks, SNAP payments and the permanent loss of income by government contractors over the past six weeks will take a number of weeks to unwind. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Cloudy with a chance of a December pause at the Fed
Inflation is likely to rise faster than the Fed’s 2% target with risk of moving higher as the strong fiscal impulse that will hit the economy next year bolsters growth prospects. … READ MORE >
UK financial conditions provide tailwind amid fiscal uncertainty
Financial conditions in the UK imply a solid tailwind for growth from the financial sector even as uncertainty over fiscal policy weighs heavily on the real economy, where hiring has slowed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: UK financial conditions are supportive of growth
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index stands at 1.4 standard deviations above neutral, which is providing a strong tailwind behind domestic economic activity. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Long-term interest rates and policy uncertainty
Economists’ are forecasting muted long-term interest rates by the end of next year, even as expansionary fiscal policies kick in. … READ MORE >









