American residential investment, which stands at 3.3% of gross domestic product, remains tepid at best amid an affordability crisis that will not be solved anytime soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The normalization of rates and the steeper yield curve
The Treasury yield curve has steepened, with 2-year Treasury bond yields now below 3.70% … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil prices fall as global production rises
The price of crude oil has continued to drop, with West Texas Intermediate falling below $63 per barrel on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are foreign exporters paying tariffs?
Most of the initial costs of tariffs are being absorbed by domestic firms and households. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Look beneath CPI headline to see the impact of tariffs
I expect a monthly increase of 0.3% in the top-line figure and the core, and annual increases of 2.8% for top line and 3% for the core. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. economy stuck in neutral, key Citi index suggests
Recent developments imply a possible economic turning point in the business cycle—and understanding economic surprise indices is key. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What trade policy whiplash could mean for inventories
Businesses experiencing trade policy whiplash are seeking to get as much as possible into U.S. ports before higher import taxes are enforced. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Manufacturing stuck in slow growth despite increased shipments
While shipments of durable goods manufactured in the U.S. are increasing, it’s clear that manufacturing is stuck in a period of slow growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. economy rests on the wealthy continuing to spend
The K-shaped economy that has defined the U.S. in the post-pandemic era is predicated on upper-income groups continuing to spend at a strong clip. … READ MORE >