Overall, the impact of the most recent Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy will be muted, but the risks of the conflict expanding remain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Patience is a virtue for the Fed
Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: It’s not the beans that cost more. It’s the can.
In a range of categories in the consumer price index where goods have been subject to tariffs like the 25% levy on steel and aluminum, prices increased significantly. … READ MORE >
Large declines in energy prices dampen a modest increase in inflation
Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Investment in an age of uncertainty
Investors should prepare for an extended period of dollar weakness, inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The unbearable lightness of tariff timelines
Months after the United States began to announce sweeping new tariffs, businesses and consumers face more uncertainty, not less. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Economy slowing into second half of the year
Slowly gathering headwinds are causing the economy to lose steam as it heads into the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation continues to cool as tariffs begin to take hold
Job creation continued to cool in May as the economy created 139,000 jobs, just above the RSM forecast of 125,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: May jobs report to reflect a modest cooling
We expect a gain of 125,000 jobs and a modest increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% when the U.S. employment report for May is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Empty containers are piling up at Los Angeles-area ports
Based on discussions with those in our professional network and a visit to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, we expect that the plunge in imports will begin showing up in the real economy during the first two weeks of July. … READ MORE >