We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the jobs data for February is released on Friday, with many of the gains attributable to seasonal fluctuations in hiring. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a continuing slowdown
At 1.9 standard deviations below normal, our proprietary index implies a manufacturing sector set to lead the overall economy into a slowdown. … READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
The forward market now anticipates a 5.25% terminal rate for the federal funds rate at the Fed’s June meeting and then a gradual unwinding just below 4% in two years. … READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
We now expect at least three 25 basis-point hikes at the Fed’s March, May and June policy meetings with the risk of a 50 basis-point hike in March. … READ MORE >
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
The surge in inventories raises the risk that firms will be caught with excess supplies just as demand begins to slow down this year. … READ MORE >
Understanding the facts in the debt ceiling debate
As the stand-off over raising the nation’s debt ceiling drags on, a rational discussion of the issues at play has often been lost amid the political rhetoric. We explain some of the basic facts. … READ MORE >
Fed’s survey of loan officers points to caution in the middle market
Even as financial conditions have eased in recent months, helping to spur a rally in equity markets, one area of America’s real economy has been flashing warning signs: the commercial and industrial loan market. … READ MORE >
Rising interest payments, deficits and the debt ceiling crisis
The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal but corporate debt issuance remains weighed down by rate hikes and the risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, reported by the Labor Department … … READ MORE >