Strong U.S. economic growth, the advent of industrial policy and the arrival of expansionary fiscal policy next year have all caused the greenback to soar in value recently, with more increases on the way. But the dollar’s strength is coming at price for emerging markets, which must pay more to service ... READ MORE >
Global currency reserves: BRIC economies not supplanting U.S. any time soon
The notion of the BRIC economies—Brazil, Russia, India and China—putting together an alternative to the U.S. dollar is neither new nor has it been effective. The idea was floated over the weekend in a threat by President-elect Donald Trump to place 100% tariffs on the BRIC economies if they move to ... READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
A robust 0.4% increase in personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income in October underscore just how strong the economy and households have been ahead of the critical holiday spending season. But at the same time, the strong spending and income data, released on Wednesday by the Commerce ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain stable at 213,000
First-time jobless claims remained remarkably stable at 213,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.9 million for the week ending Nov. 23. Our preferred metric of first-time claims, the 13-week moving average, declined to 226,200 as the distortions of the two recent hurricanes eased, according to the ... READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The declaration by President-elect Trump that he intends to place a 10% tariff on all imports from China and a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico is another sign that firms, investors and policymakers should prepare for more supply chain stress. In particular, automakers and their ... READ MORE >
China’s economic challenge: Elevated external debt and its dirty float
In the year ahead, trade tensions between the United States and China are likely to spill over into a trade skirmish at best and trade conflict at worst. A Chinese economy caught in a debt and deleveraging trap is likely to face the additional strain of a sharp increase in tariffs on goods sold into ... READ MORE >
Capital flows into the U.S. to challenge global economy
The U.S. dollar on a trade-weighted basis has increased by 7.53% over the past year because of growth and interest rate differentials between the U.S. and its major trade partners. The dollar is set to soar in the next year amid an expansionary fiscal policy and a new tariff regime. The combination ... READ MORE >
As European economy deteriorates, ECB needs to be more aggressive
Good morning. The European Central Bank is clearly going to need to get far more aggressive in its easing campaign as the continental economy, led by the underperformance of Germany and France, slips back into pull of recession’s gravity. The ECB should now consider a 50-basis point cut at its next ... READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change. The end of historically low interest rates, the adoption of policies aimed at bolstering vital national industries and the influx of foreign capital have all ... READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >