The prospect of an expansion of hostilities in the Middle East has put in focus a potential oil supply shock if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is significantly disrupted. … READ MORE >
The Fed holds rates steady, but its forecast has the whiff of stagflation
In holding the policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee also signaled the possibility of two rate cuts this year, … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Central banks not immune to rising gas futures
Between May 30 and June 17, gas futures increased by 10.2% in the United States and by 16% in Europe. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are stocks in Alfred E. Neuman territory?
After months of wild swings, the S&P 500 index is back near its record high. But there are warning signs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventory cushion may be holding down inflation
Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
The U.S. is in better position to endure an oil and gas shock
Overall, the impact of the most recent Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy will be muted, but the risks of the conflict expanding remain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Patience is a virtue for the Fed
Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: It’s not the beans that cost more. It’s the can.
In a range of categories in the consumer price index where goods have been subject to tariffs like the 25% levy on steel and aluminum, prices increased significantly. … READ MORE >
Large declines in energy prices dampen a modest increase in inflation
Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Investment in an age of uncertainty
Investors should prepare for an extended period of dollar weakness, inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >