For the first time since February 2022, the RSM US Financial Conditions Index has turned positive amid a robust economy, strong labor market, easing inflation and rising real wages. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening. … READ MORE >
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target
Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%. … READ MORE >
A rail merger and the evolution of North America’s supply chain
The merger of two major North American railroads will create a rail network that reaches both coasts and runs through the middle of the continent. … READ MORE >
Friend-shoring and a new era of U.S. trade
Fragmentation of economic, financial and trade relationships is now the norm as trading and security blocs continue to form around the world. … READ MORE >
How attacks on ships in the Red Sea are affecting trade
Trade through the Red Sea accounts for 15% of total global sea trade, including vital supplies of grains, seaborn liquid natural gas and oil. … READ MORE >
The price of eggs and public sentiment
While inflation continues to recede, higher prices continue to affect household finances, causing the public to evaluate the economy as sour. … READ MORE >
December CPI: Sticky service and housing prices illustrate the difficult last mile in inflation fight
Despite a three-month annualized top-line inflation pace of 1.8% and a six-month rate of 3.3%, prices in the service sector, which comprises 62% of the overall index, increased by 5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Conditions are ripe for the yield curve to continue to normalize as the long end moves to a range between 4% and 4.25%. … READ MORE >









