Widespread labor shortages are hampering companies’ ability to capitalize on an economy that is expanding as the country recovers from a devastating pandemic. Firms will not experience a return to the way things were in the labor markets before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: An expansion moderated by supply chain and labor constraints
Manufacturing conditions in September remain far above recession levels, suggesting a positive outlook for the economic expansion. … READ MORE >
Modeling the shock to the economy from a debt-ceiling crisis
The inability of the political sector to reach an equitable compromise on lifting the U.S. debt ceiling will come into sharp focus over the next few days. The federal government will exhaust its funding on Thursday, but can temporarily remain in operation because of special measures taken by the Department … … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed signals tapering is on the way
The Federal Reserve is planning to slow the pace of its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases even as it keeps its policy rate at zero, it suggested in its policy statement released on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Prelude to tapering amid global financial turbulence
This week’s FOMC meeting is not likely to include any meaningful announcement on tapering its monthly asset purchases and only a modest change in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot interest rate forecast. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index remains solid as election approaches.
Our index is showing that the level of risk priced into financial assets has been consistently lower than normal. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise in the wake of Hurricane Ida
The economic impact of Hurricane Ida was evident in the most recent initial jobless claims data, which rose to 332,000 for the week ending Sept. 11. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation eased in August, but it’s too soon to declare victory
Score a victory for team transitory in the inflation wars. The Consumer Price Index eased in August, reaffirming our view that inflation likely formed a peak in the summer following the historic supply shock that defined pandemic economics starting last year. … READ MORE >
Global supply chain disruptions accelerate, presenting a challenge to the middle market
Fragile global supply chains are facing another round of port closures, factory shutdowns, production halts and labor shortages as the delta variant spreads. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: How the enhanced child tax credit expands outlays on food, shelter and books
The data shows that the policy is providing an increase in spending among those with the highest marginal propensity to consume—the very people who are intended to benefit from the child tax credit. And that spending has a multiplier effect, leading to a boost in overall economic activity. … READ MORE >