The risk now is that initial positive market reactions wane over the next few days and weeks as more details from this complex budget become clearer. … READ MORE >
RSM UK’s outlook for 2026: Fiscal contraction brings short-term pain
A large fiscal contraction combined with weak consumer confidence and sagging business sentiment means we expect growth of only 0.8% in 2026. … READ MORE >
UK financial conditions provide tailwind amid fiscal uncertainty
Financial conditions in the UK imply a solid tailwind for growth from the financial sector even as uncertainty over fiscal policy weighs heavily on the real economy, where hiring has slowed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: UK financial conditions are supportive of growth
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index stands at 1.4 standard deviations above neutral, which is providing a strong tailwind behind domestic economic activity. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Divergent paths on rates
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
The U.S.-UK trade agreement that isn’t
A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding that over time may yield a productive framework for trade or not. … READ MORE >
Global central bank policy pivot continues as ECB cuts rate
The rate cuts in Europe and Canada are likely to be followed by the Bank of England in August and the Fed this fall. … READ MORE >
Risk in UK financial markets eases ahead of new government
U.K. financial markets continue to price in higher levels of risk into the value of holding securities but appear on the verge of turning the corner, RSM’s proprietary data shows. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index implies rising risk of instability
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index is warning of a dramatic increase in credit risk that, along with the depreciation of sterling, has the potential to derail commercial activity. … READ MORE >
Confusion has its cost: RSM UK Financial Conditions Index shows growing drag
Financial conditions are tightening noticeably as credit spreads widen, all of which will constrain overall economic activity. … READ MORE >