The number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose slightly to 219,000 last week, close to our forecast and the pre-pandemic average of 218,000. New claims have trended lower since last August as the 13-week moving average touched 218,000 after peaking at 235,000, a sign that the labor market ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
The Federal Reserve is on the verge of achieving that rarest of economic feats: A soft landing. The rapid disinflation that the Fed has engineered over the past two years mirrors that of the 1990s—the last time the central bank achieved such a difficult feat. That disinflation set the stage for a ... READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge amid severe weather and elevated mortgage rates
Housing starts pulled back in January following a spike in December. The number of starts in January declined by 9.8%, driven by declines in both single-family and multifamily homes. December’s figure was revised upward to 16.1%. The data suggests that the decline was not just a normal pullback from ... READ MORE >
The decline in January retail sales is less concerning than it might seem
A combination of factors—including the holiday hangover, seasonal noise, wildfires and severe cold weather—contributed to the downside surprise in retail sales in January. Sales fell by 0.9% on the month with the control group—which feeds into GDP—falling by 0.8%. Even though the data was reported ... READ MORE >
Producer inflation topped forecasts in January, led by food and energy prices
The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.4% in January, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in December, making it the hottest two-month stretch of inflation since February last year. The main drivers were food and energy prices, which rose by 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively. Excluding those ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell amid inflation concerns from trade war
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 67.8 in February, the lowest level since July, as sentiment of both current and future conditions deteriorated. The impact of recent announcements on tariffs was evident in the report as inflation expectations for the next 12 months spiked to ... READ MORE >
Labor demand cools in December
The significant drop in job openings in December extended the downward trend in labor demand toward normalization since the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022. Job openings fell to 7.6 million from 8.2 million in November, near the pre-pandemic level and providing the Fed with more relief regarding ... READ MORE >
Strong core business spending hints at another robust GDP report
American business spending on core equipment came in higher than forecast in December, with both orders and shipments pointing to strong growth to end the year, according to Commerce Department data released on Tuesday. Stronger growth, however, caused consumer confidence to fall in January as ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales continued to grow in December
American consumers ended the year on a strong note, with sales at retail stores, restaurants and online continuing to show significant gains in December. Total retail sales increased by 0.4%, following an upward revision to 0.8% from 0.7% in November, according to Commerce Department data released on ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since April
Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 211,000 for the last week of December, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The decline put initial claims at their the lowest level since April, fully offsetting the spike in the summer, which by now is looking more like seasonal volatility. Read ... READ MORE >