Manufacturing sentiment contracted for the fourth month in a row with tariffs being the primary concern among businesses. … READ MORE >
Mixed economic data points to bumpy road ahead
Looking forward, expect more volatility in June from geopolitical tensions and in July when the tariff pause expires. … READ MORE >
Retail sales send mixed signals amid trade uncertainty
Retail sales in May offered a muddled picture of consumer behavior, suggesting that while American households remain in decent shape, their appetite for spending is showing signs of fatigue. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventory cushion may be holding down inflation
Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims increased again. Is it time to worry?
New filings for unemployment benefits continued to climb last week, reaching 248,000 and nearing our threshold of 250,000 that suggests risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Trade deficit plunges in April, yet signals trouble ahead
The U.S. total trade deficit plunged to its lowest level since 2023—just a month after it spiked to a record high. … READ MORE >
Tariffs take a toll on services, raising fresh stagflation concerns
Service-sector activity contracted in May for the first time since June 2024, falling to 49.9 and confirming our expectations ahead of the Institute for Supply Management’s report on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Job openings surpass expectations but labor market shows signs of stress
Job openings held up in April, rising above market expectations with a boost from the service sector. The total number of openings rose to 7.39 million from 7.2 million in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Tariffs weigh on manufacturing and construction
The impact of tariffs on manufacturing activity was in full force in May, according to business executives surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management, as falling demand and rising prices occurred simultaneously. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Can businesses absorb the cost of tariffs?
Wherever the effective tariff rate ends up, any reduction in margins because of the significant increase in trade taxes will result in reduced growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment. … READ MORE >