Our forecast of a 0.8% drop in gross domestic product in the first quarter looks much more likely now as the trade deficit widened to a record in March. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Business confidence plunges amid sweeping tariffs
If this level of uncertainty persists, we should expect investment spending to begin to crater—especially as rising prices start to erode overall demand. … READ MORE >
Tariffs begin to show their impact on business spending
But when orders for new aircraft from Boeing are stripped away, American businesses’ new spending on equipment looked weak in March as uncertainty around trade policy heightened. … READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge in March as builder sentiment sours
Housing starts fell by 11.4% in March to 1.3 million on an annualized basis, well below the equilibrium level between supply and demand. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales surge as consumers race to beat tariffs
Headline retail sales rose by 1.4% in March, matching lofty market expectations. The increase was largely fueled by strong demand for autos and construction materials. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment plunges amid sweeping tariffs
The consumer sentiment index in April fell to its lowest level since 2022, plunging to 50.8 from 57.0 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to their highest levels since the 1980s. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: First the tariff supply shock, then the inflation
With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing data deepen concerns over growth and inflation
Manufacturing activity and sentiment contracted again after two months of modest expansion mostly because of the impact of anticipated tariffs on orders and prices. … READ MORE >
Trade deficit remains elevated, clouding first-quarter outlook
The data on goods trade for February suggested that the widening goods trade deficit because of tariffs was not a one-off. … READ MORE >
Business spending on durable equipment slowed in February
New orders for core business capital goods, which is a proxy for private investment spending on goods that typically last more than three years, fell by 0.3% in February. … READ MORE >