April retail sales showed a sharp turn in consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants, following months of stockpiling ahead of tariffs. … READ MORE >
Service providers saw a jump in prices in April
The top-line ISM service sector index rose to 51.6 from 50.8, while the prices paid subindex rose to 65.1 from 60.9. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Part-time employment boosted jobs numbers, but it won’t last
The rise in transportation and warehousing employment in April can be attributed to businesses front-running the tariffs. … READ MORE >
In trade and confidence data, recession warning signs are mounting
Our forecast of a 0.8% drop in gross domestic product in the first quarter looks much more likely now as the trade deficit widened to a record in March. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Business confidence plunges amid sweeping tariffs
If this level of uncertainty persists, we should expect investment spending to begin to crater—especially as rising prices start to erode overall demand. … READ MORE >
Tariffs begin to show their impact on business spending
But when orders for new aircraft from Boeing are stripped away, American businesses’ new spending on equipment looked weak in March as uncertainty around trade policy heightened. … READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge in March as builder sentiment sours
Housing starts fell by 11.4% in March to 1.3 million on an annualized basis, well below the equilibrium level between supply and demand. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales surge as consumers race to beat tariffs
Headline retail sales rose by 1.4% in March, matching lofty market expectations. The increase was largely fueled by strong demand for autos and construction materials. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment plunges amid sweeping tariffs
The consumer sentiment index in April fell to its lowest level since 2022, plunging to 50.8 from 57.0 in March. At the same time, inflation expectations rose to their highest levels since the 1980s. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: First the tariff supply shock, then the inflation
With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >