Helped by strong aircraft orders, durable goods orders in August rose by 1.8% on the month, easily beating analyst estimates of 0.7%, according to Commerce Department data released Monday. The increase in new orders was even more remarkable as July’s reading was revised upward to an increase of 0.5% ... READ MORE >
Modeling the shock to the economy from a debt-ceiling crisis
The inability of the political sector to reach an equitable compromise on lifting the U.S. debt ceiling will come into sharp focus over the next few days. The federal government will exhaust its funding on Thursday, but can temporarily remain in operation because of special measures taken by the ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Sales of existing homes drop amid high prices
Existing home sales in August inched down by 2.0% to 5.88 million, following an upwardly revised 6.00 million in July, according to a report released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. The new data continued to point to signs of deceleration in the housing market, but it is still a ... READ MORE >
Government deficit widens in August as battle over debt ceiling heats up
As another showdown over raising the nation’s debt limit looms, the U.S. budget deficit in August reached $170.6 billion, widening the total deficit in the first 11 months of the 2021 fiscal year to $2.711 trillion. The deficit was 14.7% lower than the budget gap a year ago, which was at $200 billion ... READ MORE >
Buy later, pay later: Consumers postpone purchases amid high prices
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 71.0 in September, following a nine-year low of 70.3 in August as consumers felt the impact of the delta variant and rising prices. The report, released on Friday, signals a temporary shift in spending as consumers delay purchases ... READ MORE >
As the delta variant spread, worried consumers went online to do their shopping
The strong retail sales for August were not only a welcome surprise for retailers after months of decline, but they also showed the enduring impact of the pandemic as consumers relied less on human contact and increasingly shopped at home. Non-store spending—which includes spending at online ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Strong back-to-school retail sales may signal positive holiday season
In what retailers hope is a preview of the holiday shopping season, retail sales from the critical back-to-school month of August increased by 0.7% on the month, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday. When autos are excluded, that gain was a robust 1.8%. The August figure ... READ MORE >
Import prices dropped below expectation in August, but prices from Asia remained hot
The U.S. import price index decreased by 0.3% in August, the first decline since October 2020, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in July, while the core index, which excludes petroleum, fell by 0.1%, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly decline ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Small business optimism inched up in August, yet hiring struggles remained
The small business optimism index increased slightly to 100.1 in August, rising by 0.4 points over July, even as employers struggled to fill job openings. Half of the firms surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business reported positions that they could not fill in the current period, ... READ MORE >
Global supply chain disruptions accelerate, presenting a challenge to the middle market
Fragile global supply chains are facing another round of port closures, factory shutdowns, production halts and labor shortages as the delta variant spreads. These disruptions will almost certainly delay the return of full production in the global economy until the middle of next year and create ... READ MORE >