Wherever the effective tariff rate ends up, any reduction in margins because of the significant increase in trade taxes will result in reduced growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment. … READ MORE >
Rising continuing claims and falling profits signal labor market strain
Since April, the number of continuing claims has broken the 1.9 million threshold twice, including last week—a level higher than any seen in 2019, before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Equipment orders slide in April, showing impact of tariffs
Even with some recent easing in tensions, uncertainty surrounding trade policy remains high. Business spending is likely to remain largely frozen in the months ahead. … READ MORE >
Cracks in spending and manufacturing begin to form
April retail sales showed a sharp turn in consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants, following months of stockpiling ahead of tariffs. … READ MORE >
Service providers saw a jump in prices in April
The top-line ISM service sector index rose to 51.6 from 50.8, while the prices paid subindex rose to 65.1 from 60.9. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Part-time employment boosted jobs numbers, but it won’t last
The rise in transportation and warehousing employment in April can be attributed to businesses front-running the tariffs. … READ MORE >
In trade and confidence data, recession warning signs are mounting
Our forecast of a 0.8% drop in gross domestic product in the first quarter looks much more likely now as the trade deficit widened to a record in March. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Business confidence plunges amid sweeping tariffs
If this level of uncertainty persists, we should expect investment spending to begin to crater—especially as rising prices start to erode overall demand. … READ MORE >
Tariffs begin to show their impact on business spending
But when orders for new aircraft from Boeing are stripped away, American businesses’ new spending on equipment looked weak in March as uncertainty around trade policy heightened. … READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge in March as builder sentiment sours
Housing starts fell by 11.4% in March to 1.3 million on an annualized basis, well below the equilibrium level between supply and demand. … READ MORE >