With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing data deepen concerns over growth and inflation
Manufacturing activity and sentiment contracted again after two months of modest expansion mostly because of the impact of anticipated tariffs on orders and prices. … READ MORE >
Trade deficit remains elevated, clouding first-quarter outlook
The data on goods trade for February suggested that the widening goods trade deficit because of tariffs was not a one-off. … READ MORE >
Business spending on durable equipment slowed in February
New orders for core business capital goods, which is a proxy for private investment spending on goods that typically last more than three years, fell by 0.3% in February. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence slumps amid tariffs and layoffs
The headline index for consumer confidence dropped to 92.9, slightly below our forecast of 93.3, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Industrial production index hits record high amid tariffs
The U.S. industrial production index rose to a record 104.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, according to the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rebound, easing some concerns over growth
We do not expect the data to alter the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level since early 2023
Most notably, inflation expectations worsened, with the 12-month gauge advancing to 4.9% and the five-to-10 metric increasing to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise above expectations in January
The quit rate, a proxy for labor demand, rose in January, indicating that workers were in a stronger bargaining position as demand increased. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing prices rise in February amid higher tariffs
The prices paid subindex in the ISM manufacturing report rose to 62.4 in February, the highest level since June 2022, from 54.9 in January. … READ MORE >