Initial jobless continue to trend above the pre-pandemic average, as the U.S. economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter. However, continued jobless claims remain flat, suggesting people receiving unemployment benefits aren’t remaining unemployed for long. … READ MORE >
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Q2 US GDP: Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter
From our point of view, the economy will likely soon meet the formal definition of being in a recession, though it isn’t there yet. … READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada Supply Chain Index turns positive amid slowing economy
The RSM Canada Supply Chain Index turned positive for the first time since February 2020. … READ MORE >
Unexpectedly strong durable goods orders and trade data temper recession concerns
Durable goods orders and goods trade deficit in June beat expectations, according to data released Wednesday, tempering recession concerns before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate hike later in the day. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >
Back-to-school consumer business outlook: Return of the discount
To address inventory surplus, back-to-school shoppers can expect the return of the discount as companies must flush excess inventory. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops as new home sales slump
Consumer confidence continued to fall in July to the lowest level since February 2021 amid inflation angst and an economic slowdown. Sales of new homes fell by 8.1% in June. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of July 18, 2022
This week we highlight continued investment in driving diversity in clinical trials, the impact of decentralized technology on trial enrollments and more. … READ MORE >