Canada’s international merchandise trade surplus widened to 3.1 billion CAD in November because of an unexpected source--the mass production of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Thursday. With the approval of the COVID-19 vaccines to children ages 5 to 11, demand ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Initial jobless claims remain below pandemic level despite seasonal uptick
New filings for unemployment insurance last week ticked up to 207,000 from 198,000, continuing to stay below the pre-pandemic level amid a tight labor market where businesses are holding onto their workers. The headline number for jobless claims has been below the 2019 average of 218,000 for the past ... READ MORE >
ADP jobs report: Service sector led an upside surprise in December
Private businesses in the United States added 807,000 jobs in December, the most since May, pointing to a stronger rebound of the labor market, according to a report from ADP on Wednesday. The increase, which handily beat estimates of about 410,000 new jobs, was broad-based, with the largest gains ... READ MORE >
December jobs report preview: Expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%
We expect a net gain in total employment of 475,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% when the jobs report for December is published on Friday. Strong job creation in higher-paying jobs in goods production, construction, manufacturing, business services and the financial sector ... READ MORE >
Labor market tightened in November despite decline in job openings
Demand for labor declined slightly in November while the rate of people quitting their jobs returned to an all-time high, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Despite the decrease of about 529,000 job openings—a proxy for labor demand—the total number of vacancies ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Manufacturing sector grows at a slower pace
The manufacturing sector continued to grow in December, but at a slightly lower rate compared to November, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. The data, taken before the full effect of the omicron variant was felt, pointed to the same big picture of healthy ... READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Meeting the Fed’s full employment mandate
This is the first of four articles examining monetary and fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve’s response to the overriding issues of today’s economy. This article examines the Fed’s challenge in meeting its mandate for full employment. The second looks at the Fed’s other mandate, for price stability. ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion continues despite omicron, supply chain uncertainty
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remained solid in December at 1.3 standard deviations above neutral as the economy continued to expand into the end of the year. But that strength is in question as the omicron variant continues to spread. Our index moderated during December, mostly on a slump ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence surveys reflect a bifurcation of the nation’s economy
Recent readings of consumer confidence are revealing an increasingly bifurcated economy as households continue to grapple with the pandemic. The economy can be divided into two camps, the surveys show: one of scarcity where prices are rising and employment remains a challenge, and one of abundance ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence improves despite concern over omicron variant and inflation
Consumer confidence advanced in December for the third month in a row, driven by a strong labor market and recovery in spending since September, despite risks from the omicron variant and inflation. The headline consumer confidence index rose by 3.9 points to 115.8 on the month, the largest ... READ MORE >