Consumer confidence in the United States slid to a three-month low in May amid sticky inflation and a decline in job availability. With both factors likely to persist, we expect confidence to remain on a rocky path over the next couple of months. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index inched ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus
Personal spending and trade improved in April as inflation eased
American consumers continued to spend more in April as inflation showed signs of relief. The combination of higher incomes, excess savings and lower energy prices helped to alleviate some of the recent recession concerns. On top of that, the advanced goods trade deficit improved significantly on ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims show signs of bottoming out
New filings for jobless benefits last week inched down as a tight labor market kept layoffs below pre-pandemic levels. There were 210,000 new filings for the week ending May 21, down 8,000 from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday . The weekly average pre-pandemic in ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Risk aversion returns
Financial conditions in the United States deteriorated again in May after a pause in late April. The recent selloff across equity markets is indicative of the policy shift at the Federal Reserve, which intends to tighten financial conditions to achieve price stability. While we continue to make the ... READ MORE >
Rising inflation eases but Canada’s housing remains a concern
April brought a hint that inflation could soon peak in Canada. The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 6.8%, a slight increase from March, while all measures of core inflation continued to rise, according to data from Statistics Canada released on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, the increase ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production hits record
Industrial production set another record in April, defying recession concerns in equity and fixed-income markets. The Federal Reserve's index for industrial production volume rose by 0.8%, the fourth consecutive month of strong expansion, the report showed. All major industries posted gains, a sign of ... READ MORE >
U.S. April Consumer Price Index: Peak inflation provides no solace
About the best one can say about the April inflation report is that year-over-year metrics appear to have topped while core inflation increased, and housing costs that are up 6.5% from a year ago are now a policy issue that needs to be addressed. The data inside the report reflects a shift in demand ... READ MORE >
The price of war: Risks around the inflation outlook
While we expect the annual inflation rate to peak this quarter as comparisons to the lower levels of a year ago wear off, the risk of rising prices will remain as the twin shocks of the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s coronavirus shutdowns endure. These price shocks will have the biggest effect on ... READ MORE >
U.S. April jobs report: Another month of solid payroll gains
Sustained strength in wages continues to attract workers back into the American labor force, which resulted in a net increase of 428,000 jobs in April—the second such increase in a row—as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. Since the beginning of the year, the economy has added 2.1 million ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: Bracing for more disruptions
Supply chain bottlenecks eased in March, but it won't be for long. Widespread lockdowns in China and prolonged geopolitical conflict in Ukraine will most likely assure another round of supply chain snarls ahead. Our RSM US Supply Chain Index rose 4.5% to 2.76 standard deviation below neutral. The ... READ MORE >