Housing starts and building permits in the United States fell in October for the second straight month largely because of the two hurricanes in the South and the recent rebound in mortgage rates. Housing starts, a key indicator of residential real estate performance within gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
Economics
Canada’s prices for services and shelter decelerated in October
Canada’s consumer price index accelerated in October, but that increase will not deter a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December, though the size of the cut is up for debate. Canada’s CPI accelerated to 2.0 per cent, up from 1.6 per cent in September, because of a smaller decline in gasoline prices ... READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change. The end of historically low interest rates, the adoption of policies aimed at bolstering vital national industries and the influx of foreign capital have all ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
Retail sales growth was softer in October, following a stronger-than-expected September report, which had sharp upward revisions, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. The mixed results should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. That probability has ... READ MORE >
Falling jobless claims and firmer inflation point to slower rate cuts
The impact of two major hurricanes and labor strikes in the past two months on initial jobless claim data has completely faded, as the metric fell to 217,000 last week, lower than the pre-pandemic average. The continued drop in new filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, should suggest ... READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >
To contend with higher tariffs, businesses need to act now
With higher tariffs likely under the incoming Trump administration, businesses are already making decisions in a way that will affect economic growth and reshape the global economy. We are already getting questions on pulling forward expected orders for durable goods to avoid the increase in ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment in November rises to highest level since April
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to the highest level since April as gasoline prices continued to fall and inflation concerns eased. According to the University of Michigan's survey in November, the sentiment index increased to 73 from 70.5 with expectations leading the increase. The election should not ... READ MORE >
Canada’s labour force participation rate fell to the lowest since 1997
Canada's economy in October continued the trend of a weak labour market, adding only 15,000 jobs. Although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5 per cent, this has been because of people dropping out or staying out of the workforce, as the labour force participation rate fell to 64.8 per ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. The major takeaway from the policy statement is ... READ MORE >