The increase in service sector prices pre-dated the recent supply shock and is part of a broader rise in inflation and interest rates., … READ MORE >
Economics
Manufacturing advanced at fastest pace in four years, ISM data shows
The manufacturing sector continued its recent run in May, growing significantly for the fifth consecutive month on the back of tariffs and the AI buildout, according data from the Institute for Supply Management. Demand was particularly strong in May, buoyed in part by the prospect of a resolution of the … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The bond market starts to bite back
In the 13 weeks since the war in Iran began, the yields on 2-year and 5-year Treasury bonds have increased by 64 basis points, closing at 4.0% and 4.14% last Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Inflation heats up as stress on households grows
The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Market minute: ECB to raise rates in June
Our assessment implies that, given the current global supply shock, the ECB’s monetary policy is too accommodative. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising real yields and the cost of capital
Since March 1, real yields have increased by 38 basis points on the 10-year Treasury, to 2.07%, and by 20 basis points on the 30-year, to 2.74%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation embedded in the fabric of our lives
Repercussions from the supply shock continue to spread, with cross-market implications for both synthetic and organic fibers that will disrupt global apparel supply chains. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Housing recovery will not happen this year
Completions have declined from 1.6 million at an annualized pace in March last year to a 1.37 million pace in March this year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The end of bond-market complacency
After shrugging off the breakout of war in the Middle East, the front end of the U.S. bond market is now pricing in the risk of higher inflation. … READ MORE >