The U.S. December employment report will most likely show a net increase of 180,000 jobs with the risk of a stronger print because of seasonal fluctuations, a post-hurricane rebound in hiring as well as solid gains in government, health care, education, and leisure and hospitality, The unemployment is ... READ MORE >
Economics
Morning market minute: India’s rising capital buffer and the end of its currency peg
As India has gained prominence in the global economy, its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has wisely increased the level of foreign exchange holdings. These reserves are necessary to maintain payments for imports should there be a global economic financial crisis or a sudden devaluation of the ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The end of the Indian rupee’s effective dollar peg
A currency is a two-sided instrument. In the case of the Indian rupee-U.S. dollar exchange rate, the demand for the rupee has been overwhelmed by the demand for the dollar and a loss of competitiveness over the two years that the Reserve Bank of India has maintained a de-facto peg to the dollar. Now, ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Do frothy financial markets present risk in 2025?
It is said that the economy is not the stock market. That is true; however, the stock market is critical to supporting household spending. In our contemporary K-shaped economy, where higher-income consumers have thrived while those with lower incomes have struggled, paying close attention to the link ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: US term premium and higher yields
The decomposition of bond yields rests on two factors: first, expectations, or the average of future short-term interest rates; and second, a term premium that reflects compensation demanded by investors to hold riskier long-term bonds. Given that expectations are anchored by Federal Reserve policy ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since April
Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 211,000 for the last week of December, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The decline put initial claims at their the lowest level since April, fully offsetting the spike in the summer, which by now is looking more like seasonal volatility. Read ... READ MORE >
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
Over the past year the real trade-weighted dollar index has appreciated 6.88% because of a combination of interest rate differentials, strong growth and expectations of reduced regulation, lower taxes and increased government spending. With these trends showing no sign of easing, the greenback will ... READ MORE >
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Stubborn and sticky inflation did not prevent the American consumer from tapping rising real incomes in November as the economy approached the traditional holiday season. Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used the 1.1% increase in ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The strange logic of economic populism and government shutdowns
The prospect of a government shutdown and another unnecessary standoff in Congress over raising the nation's debt ceiling are providing a lump of coal in Americans’ holiday stockings. At issue are a $110 billion disaster relief bill, an extension of the farm bill and a two-year proposed suspension ... READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%, according to government data released on Thursday. Upward revisions to personal consumption, trade and government spending drove the gains. The labor market also showed ... READ MORE >