One of the stories driving conversation today in financial markets, especially among fixed-income participants, is the idea that U.S. growth has peaked and that is why bond yields have declined recently. This discussion needs some context. … READ MORE >
Economics
CHART OF THE DAY: Southern California seaports processing record number of imports
The Los Angeles and Long Beach seaports are processing an extraordinary number of import containers. Although the three months after the holidays are generally the quietest of the year, this first quarter broke records and that activity points to the tip of the global economic recovery. … READ MORE >
How pandemic savings might have saved the day
The mix of savings, pent-up demand for services and what we think will be an increase in productivity-enhancing investments by businesses will provide a multiyear period of above-trend growth. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing is on fire
Housing starts skyrocketed 19.4% in March to 1.739 million, blowing past expectations of 1.613 million and well above the 1.5 million long-term equilibrium, according to government data released Friday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: In retail sales data, consumers are ready to get out of the house
The March retail sales data showed just how much pent-up demand exists in the economy, and people are ready to travel around the country again. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Large decline as workers return
First-time jobless claims declined to 576,000 for the week ending April 10, which is the lowest since March 2020 as individuals begin streaming back into the labor force and the economy begins to reopen on the back of vaccinations and fiscal aid. … READ MORE >
Robust rebound in March retail sales
The combined impact of a weather-related resumption of household spending and $680 billion in fiscal aid checks working their way through the economy stimulated a robust 9.8% rebound in top-line March retail sales. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. food prices likely past pandemic peak
Food prices increased by 3.5% in March, according to recent government data, and those increases are likely to become more muted as global supply chains move back toward full production in the near term. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rebound in rail freight is an early sign of recovery
Intermodal rail freight is in the midst of a strong recovery in another sign that the manufacturing sector and the economy have entered the early stages of what we expect to be a robust expansion this year. … READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation begins its temporary march upward
Increases in energy and transportation costs that were made more extreme by comparisons to last year’s economic downturn helped push the Consumer Price Index higher at an annual rate of 2.6% in March. … READ MORE >