A mathematician at MIT, Scott Sheffield, has outlined an alternative approach — and the math behind it — to our current course of dealing with the pandemic. It is designed “for a society that has resolved to keep future infections low in anticipation of a vaccine.” … READ MORE >
Economics
Treasuries remain a safe haven in the pandemic, even as transaction demand falls
Global financial markets are reacting to the resurgence of the coronavirus in Europe, the United States and elsewhere and the prospect of increased U.S. postelection fiscal spending. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. manufacturing expanded at fastest pace since 2018, ISM reports
U.S. manufacturing activity continued its six-month expansion in October, according to Institute for Supply Management data released on Monday, with 15 of the 18 manufacturing industries included in the data reporting growth. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: All is quiet
Thursday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will almost surely signal that all is quiet on the monetary front given the major changes by the central bank this year. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve eases Main Street Lending Program terms to encourage participation
The Federal Reserve on Friday announced changes to its Main Street Lending Program intended to make financing more readily available to small and medium-size businesses struggling amid a resurgence of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: As demand for oil sags, price and production tumble
For the third time in 20 years, the bottom has fallen out of oil prices, which will most likely have enormous implications for the economies of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and have enormous potential geopolitical ramifications. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index breaks above 2018-20 downtrend
A rebound in manufacturing sentiment implies that the domestic economy is moving briskly back toward recovery. For this reason, we expect that the October Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index will reflect a modest improvement in overall sentiment and another month of robust new orders. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Durable goods orders rise for fifth straight month
Orders for long-lasting factory goods increased for the fifth consecutive month in September, according to U.S. Department of Commerce data released on Tuesday. New orders for durable goods rose 1.9% in September compared with August. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP preview: What we talk about when we talk about GDP
We are forecasting a 35.5% increase in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate when the third-quarter estimate is released on Thursday. That data will illustrate an enormous gap between actual and potential output that will take some time to close. … READ MORE >