The American economy this year has been a story of strength and resilience that would have been hard to imagine a year ago. Easing inflation, a robust labor market and surging productivity are all fueling growth that is expected to continue throughout the year. In a recent wide-ranging conversation, ... READ MORE >
Economics
Service sector continues to normalize in March
The service sector posted slower growth in March as price growth fell to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday. The composite index fell to 51.4 from 52.6, while the prices paid subindex dropped to 53.4 from ... READ MORE >
Job openings inch up in February
Job openings edged higher in February, suggesting that the jobs report for March will show continued strong gains when it is released on Friday. Openings rose by 8,000 to 8.756 million in September, slightly higher than forecasted, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector expands for the first time since September 2022
The manufacturing sector grew faster in March than expected on the heels of strong production activity and new orders, according to the Institute for Supply Management survey released on Monday. The March data, though, should not so much be seen as a sign of strength to come but rather as a catchup ... READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Until recently, the idea that economy could simultaneously have low levels of unemployment and low inflation seemed to be a fantasy. Conventional wisdom, after all, holds that when unemployment is low, businesses need to pay higher wages to attract workers, which pushes up the cost of goods and services, ... READ MORE >
In global shift to renewable energy, Canada risks being left behind
Canada’s economy is facing a carbon emissions squeeze. Even as it makes progress in meeting its carbon reduction goals by 2030, Canada is not moving fast enough. To get there, Canada needs to vastly amplify investments in renewables to cut emissions while enabling economic growth. Failing to do so ... READ MORE >
U.S. spending and inflation improve above expectations
The economy was much stronger than expected in February as data on both spending and inflation exceeded forecasts. Spending rose by 0.8% on the month, compared with the forecast of 0.5%, while the personal consumption expenditures index—an inflation measure closely watched by the Federal ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: The Boeing effect takes a toll
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in March to 1.8 standard deviations below the levels of activity that would normally be expected, reflecting sluggish activity across the production sector in general and the problems at Boeing in particular. Only the Philadelphia region offered signs ... READ MORE >
Federal Reserve’s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term which underscores our call for the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate at the June meeting. Given our forecast of a modest 2.1% pace of growth this year, a cut in ... READ MORE >
Regulations and rate cuts to drive renewable energy growth
As renewable energy projects contend with volatile energy markets, battles over permits and a challenging investment climate, it’s easy to lose sight of the progress that is being made in the transition away from fossil fuels. Sustained investment in renewables continues, despite the hurdles, and ... READ MORE >