Manufacturing sentiment in August pointed toward a modest acceleration in growth inside the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey, even as the headline number stayed flat at 52.8 compared to July. This data, which was released on Thursday, will almost certainly bolster calls for a ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
Jobless claims show that jobs remain plentiful
First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 232,000 for the week ending Aug. 27 as continuing claims increased modestly to 1.438 million from a revised 1.412 million for the week ending Aug. 20. From our vantage point, it would appear that the pace of firings is settling into a pace ... READ MORE >
Housing proved a drag on Canada’s economy in the second quarter
Canada’s real gross domestic product rose by 0.1% in June from May amid a slumping housing sector, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Wednesday. For the second quarter overall, the economy posted a 3.3% gain, which fell short of expectations. While the economy is not in recession, the ... READ MORE >
After a strong recovery in Canada, economic headwinds set in
The Canadian economy has had a robust recovery from the lockdowns of the pandemic as pent-up consumer demand and generous government spending have fueled growth. But now with rising inflation, especially in food and energy prices, and a historically tight labour market, that growth is ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Decline in new orders leads a slowdown
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index indicates a slowing manufacturing sector. This month’s reading of 1.47 standard deviations below normal manufacturing activity is the fourth month of decreased manufacturing since May after nearly two years of expansion. While employment remains solid, current ... READ MORE >
How high must unemployment rise to tame inflation?
Restoring price stability is now the paramount policy goal at the Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell went out of his way on Friday to point out the lessons of the high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, and the sacrifice it took to wring it out of the economy after years of delays. "Our aim is to ... READ MORE >
Powell at Jackson Hole: From era of abundance to one of insufficient supply
The pandemic has been the catalyst for a seismic shift in the American economy as it shifts from an era of abundance to one of insufficient supply. For households, this implies a shift from what we call rational inattention regarding consumption to a more rational approach to spending. As ... READ MORE >
Spending remains steady on strong income growth and inflation relief
U.S. personal income and spending in July signaled a gradual rebound of the economy in the third quarter after six months of declines in gross domestic product. The catalyst was a combination of a tight labor market with steady wage income growth and a sharp drop in inflation on the back of falling ... READ MORE >
Better-than-expected GDP and jobless claims push back recession fear
The decline in U.S. gross domestic product growth in the second quarter was less than previously estimated, according to a revised report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. GDP contracted by only 0.6% in the second quarter instead of by 0.9%, as estimated in July. In the same ... READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. In the best-case scenario, the Fed, by raising rates, reduces discretionary spending enough to stabilize prices, and the economy continues to ... READ MORE >