Andy Burnham, the next likely prime minister, has recently committed to sticking to the current fiscal rules but has also suggested that he wants to spend more to support households. … READ MORE >
Economics
Surging equities and the trickle-up economy
We estimate that every dollar of stock market gains generates less than a penny of consumer spending—roughly 0.8 cents … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil inventories plunge to operational stress levels
Inventories of West Texas Intermediate crude held in Cushing, Okla., have fallen to 20 million barrels, the lowest point in a decade. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why so hawkish?
A simple look at PCE, core PCE, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and core PPI illustrates that they all reside above the current federal funds policy rate, not to mention the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. … READ MORE >
Fed tilts hawkish as Warsh promises price stability
While we think that the July FOMC meeting will be a status quo event, the September meeting will be a live policy meeting where the committee could see movement toward a rate hike if not an outright increase. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: At the FOMC meeting, a rate hike to be determined later
Recent events have caused a reset of investor expectations regarding what and when the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Financial conditions remain a modest tailwind
Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index stands at 0.8 standard deviations above normal with room to improve in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Warsh will face a searing credibility test
How will the new Fed chair balance his stated receptiveness to rate cuts with the recent rise in inflation? … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why the dollar has held up but not gold
At least for now, there is no viable alternative to the dollar as the global reserve currency. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Gas price volatility is an echo of past crises
Most recently, in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused disruptions to the energy supply chain, sending gasoline prices 60% higher. … READ MORE >