The Federal Reserve's rate decisions on July 29 will likely be remembered not for what is stated inside the policy communique. Rather, it will be long noted for what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says at his news conference following the publication of the policy statement with respect to coming change in the Fed’s policy regime. In our estimation, both ... READ MORE >
Economics
The middle market economy—often overlooked in the wake of large public companies and emerging Wall Street darlings—is the backbone of U.S. economic growth, accounting for the majority of new U.S. jobs and some 40 percent of the nation’s GDP.
Initial jobless claims, by state: Texas passes 3 million
Texas became the fifth state to have processed 3 million initial filings for unemployment benefits since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus and the shutdown of local economies on March 7. Of the four other states (California, Florida, Georgia and New York), only New York has escaped the latest outbreak of COVID-19 infections that is sweeping ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Slowing economy pushes claims higher
A series of alternative and near real-time data show that the economy began to slow on or around June 24. First-time jobless claims, which increased by 1.416 million for the week ending July 18, affirm the evolution of that data and point to risks around a slower pace of workers being recalled to their pre-pandemic jobs. Pauses, pullbacks, shutdowns and ... READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. The lapse in aid to 20 million Americans that pumped roughly $116 billion into the economy in June ... READ MORE >
What PPP loan data reveals about business and professional services and the economic recovery
Business and professional services (BPS) firms borrowed more Paycheck Protection Program loans through June than all but four segments of the U.S. economy. Industry executives took advantage of federal assistance in an effort to maintain their capabilities and client relationships by retaining their people. And considering that, according to Bloomberg, ... READ MORE >
No vaccine, no recovery: The long road back
It is becoming quite clear that absent an accessible and widely distributed vaccine, there will be no complete economic recovery. What originally was thought to be a 15 week problem has quickly evolved into something that looks more like a 15-month challenge. The premature reopening of the U.S. economy has resulted in an intensification of the pandemic, ... READ MORE >
A national pandemic shifts to the South and Southwest
It has become increasingly clear that there will not be a meaningful domestic or global economic recovery until an effective coronavirus vaccine regimen is in place. The intensified spread of the coronavirus in states outside of the U.S. major metropolitan areas that were hardest hit early on poses significant risk to growth in the second half of ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: 19 show significant increases
The spread of the coronavirus across the South and Southwest and into the Plains became apparent in states with statistically significant increases in initial jobless claims during the week ending July 11. It is difficult to assess trends in weekly jobless claims because of the scattershot nature of processing large numbers of applicants for ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: 17 straight weeks above 1 million
Initial jobless claims remain stubbornly elevated, which implies persistent weakness in the domestic labor market as the economy absorbs further intensification of the coronavirus pandemic. This may cause further volatility in these numbers in the coming weeks. First-time jobless claims for the week ending July 11 increased by 1.3 million, bringing ... READ MORE >
June Consumer Price Index: Inflation not a risk to near-term economic outlook
Rising energy and gasoline prices accounted for roughly half of the 0.6% increase month over month inside the June Consumer Price Index report and should prove transient due to easing demand on the back of an intensifying pandemic. That increase, for the most part, is the recovery in oil and gasoline prices following the pandemic-induced collapse in ... READ MORE >