Retail sales topped forecasts in November, growing at a robust pace for the third month in a row. … READ MORE >
Economics
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Resignation of Canada’s finance minister before release of fall economic statement adds to uncertainty
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing political uncertainty as financial challenges loom in 2025. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
American household net worth sets record, bringing debt-to-asset ratio to 50-year low
The primary driver of this increase was rising equity prices, which added $2.8 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of significant growth. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 … … READ MORE >
Inflation ticks up amid seasonal factors and strong growth
November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Fed’s 2% target. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017—as more people looked for work. … READ MORE >