As expected, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday maintained its policy rate at 5 per cent and continued its restrictive monetary policies. At the same time, though, its public statements signed a more dovish tone. In softening its rhetoric, the central bank noted the slowdown in the global and domestic ... READ MORE >
Economics
Consumer sentiment rises above expectations in January
Consumer sentiment rose in January to the highest level since August 2021 as inflation concerns eased. American consumers showed more confidence in the economy, both now and in the future, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. The overall index increased to 78.8 from 69.7, much higher than ... READ MORE >
Friend-shoring and a new era of U.S. trade
The era of hyper-globalization ended with the trade war that began in 2017. In its place, global trade flows have fragmented to the point that by November 2022, U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada had surpassed China. In addition, as political risk has increased around the world, including the recent ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises
Filings for jobless benefits fell last week to their lowest level in 16 months, a testament for how resilient the labor market continues to be. Initial claims declined to 187,000 from 203,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. That was much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
How attacks on ships in the Red Sea are affecting trade
The deteriorating situation in the Red Sea poses risks to the global economy as supply chains are disrupted and prices are pushed higher. Geopolitical tensions have now spread into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, underscoring the fragmentation of global trade relationships and ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and industrial production point to a strong end of the year
Resilience not recession is the right "R" word to describe the American economy in December. Wednesday's data from the Commerce Department showed retail sales blowing past expectations while industrial production volume stayed solid. The upside surprises, together with a robust labor market, prompted ... READ MORE >
The price of eggs and public sentiment
Inflation is receding and the labor market is as healthy as it has been since the 1950s. Wages are higher in inflation-adjusted terms. Everyone who wants a job either has one or can find one quickly. And with the economy growing at healthy rate over the past year, one would think that Americans ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation accelerated to 3.4% in December
December’s Consumer Price Index report for Canada is another bump in the road in the path toward price stability. The overall index rose by 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, up from 3.1% in November, primarily because of the base effect, or comparisons to a year ago. Prices dropped from ... READ MORE >
December CPI: Sticky service and housing prices illustrate the difficult last mile in inflation fight
The December Consumer Price Index captures both the broader disinflation taking place inside the goods sector and the persistent inflation inside the service sector. Each generates its own economic and policy narratives that carry implications for the economy in a year of a closely fought ... READ MORE >
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Financial markets had a difficult start to the year after an exuberant end to last year. The yield on 10-year Treasury bills dropped from 5.0% to 3.8% to end the year as investors priced in an early start for monetary policy easing. Now, as the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, we think conditions ... READ MORE >