While nominal gains in spending and income look strong on the topline, adjusting for inflation is necessary—and subsequently implies an economy that is growing just above 1 percent. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Rising input prices curb appetite for capital expenditure investment
Manufacturers continue to expect higher input prices while holding mixed expectations regarding capital expenditure in the next six months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Europe’s de-industrial moment
As China continues to flood its external market with cheap goods, Germany finds itself to be a willing partner, trading its low value-added manufacturing sector for the disinflation of cheap goods. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The $12 trillion repo market means de-dollarization is improbable
The euro, yuan, pound and yen do not have the adequate depth to support the liquidity needs of the global systematically important banks. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The perils of relying on T-bills to finance the deficit
Reliance on the front end of the Treasury curve, and a drawdown in the repo facility, open the government to the risk of increased volatility, … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Chinese deflation is not abating
Beijing’s current policies are likely to continue what is shaping up to be an extended period of private sector deleveraging. … READ MORE >
Powell opens door to September cut as Fed shifts to a balanced 2% target
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday gave investors and policymakers the words that they wanted to hear on a possible September rate cut. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. investment grade spread implies robust risk appetite
While the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped by 10 basis points since the end of April, investment-grade corporate bond yields have dropped by roughly 25 basis points. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. electricity pricing rises 9.5% amid surging AI demand
Tech giants’ investments in data centers will require vast amounts of energy, which will ultimately hit consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Diverging inflation expectations
Policy decisions by the Federal Reserve will rest upon whether it thinks that higher tariffs will result in a one-time increase in prices or persistent inflation. … READ MORE >