Uncertainty over the business cycle, a more restrictive monetary policy and the impasse over raising the nation’s debt ceiling are spurring a classic migration to the preferred habitat of spooked investors: risk-free securities. With the U.S. two-year yield now exceeding 5% and the Federal ... READ MORE >
Economics
Initial jobless claims spike to highest level since December
New claims for jobless benefits last week came in hotter than expected at 211,000, significantly higher than the 190,000 of the previous week, the Department of Labor reported on Thursday. The increase was in line with expectations following a large number of high-profile layoff announcements ... READ MORE >
The debt ceiling stand-off: Frequently asked questions
As middle market businesses weigh the costs of the stand-off over raising the nation's debt ceiling, we offer some answers to frequently asked questions about how the dispute will play out. What is the debt ceiling? The debt ceiling sets a limit on how much debt the U.S. government can incur. ... READ MORE >
Job openings remained plentiful in January, adding to pressure on the Fed
Job openings fell in January yet still came in hotter than expected, offering the Federal Reserve no relief in its fight against inflation. The central bank faces a crucial decision when it meets in two weeks: Whether to maintain its current peak policy rate of 5.5%, as it had announced a few ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral from 0.4 previously as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. Markets are moving to price in a hard landing around a ... READ MORE >
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
The February jobs report will most likely provide another questionable estimate of labor conditions in the American economy, overstating the pace of hiring in the private sector. We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the data is released on Friday, with many of the gains ... READ MORE >
U.S. service sector expands in back-to-back months
The service sector continued its strong growth in February on the heels of robust new orders, business activity and improvement in inventories. The U.S. service purchasing managers index registered at 55.1, only slightly lower than the 55.2 in January, according data released Friday by the ... READ MORE >
New jobless claims fall again amid strong labor market
Initial claims for unemployment benefits inched down further last week, remaining near a multi-decade low amid a persistently tight job market. New claims dropped by 2,000 to 190,000 for the week ending Feb. 24, lower than the pre-pandemic average of 218,000, according to Labor Department ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector shrinks again in February amid falling demand
The manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month as higher borrowing costs continued to affect demand. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index in February was 47.7, remaining below the long-term breakeven point of 48.7. An index above 48.7 indicates an ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a continuing slowdown
The downturn in manufacturing continued in February, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. At 1.9 standard deviations below normal, our proprietary index implies a manufacturing sector set to lead the overall economy into a slowdown. While the overall economy remains ... READ MORE >