A shutdown will hurt the economy, placing a drag on spending and overall economic activity as we approach the traditional holiday season. … READ MORE >
Economics
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan payments present modest drag on growth
Despite the hype and scare tactics around a well-telegraphed restart date, we estimate that it will result in only a 0.3 percentage point drag on GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >
Falling jobless claims, existing home sales offer mixed economic picture
The mixed signals from Thursday’s data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales added to an economic picture that resembles a soft landing when the economy bends but does not break. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: No rate hike as Fed implies soft landing
The Fed maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession. … READ MORE >
Housing starts fall to three-year low amid 7% mortgage rate
Housing starts in the United States fell by a sharp 11.3% in August, the second double-digit drop in three months. … READ MORE >
Canada inflation surges 4%, exceeding forecasts
Canada’s Consumer Price Index increased by 4% on an annual basis in August, far exceeding the central bank’s 2% target. … READ MORE >
Low core inflation should keep the Fed from hiking rates
While we expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, what its updated Summary of Economic Projections will look like remains less clear. … READ MORE >
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
Industrial production nears a record high as consumer sentiment falls
Industrial volume in August rose by 0.4% to the highest level in 11 months, nearing the record registered last September, as consumer sentiment In September fell to the lowest level in three months. … READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than expected, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. … READ MORE >