Jerome Powell’s answers to questions about trade and fiscal policy will drive volatility given the sensitivity of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the American dollar to growing policy uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Economics
Strong core business spending hints at another robust GDP report
American business spending on core equipment came in higher than forecast in December, with both orders and shipments pointing to strong growth to end the year. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing the dollar’s risk, volatility and tariffs
A look at the implied volatility of the dollar-euro pair suggests that there is ample room for dollar weakness and volatility until tariff policies are resolved … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: A look at the U.S. trade and current account balances
To narrow the U.S. trade and current account deficits, the Trump administration has said it would take the external route—using tariffs as leverage to narrow the deficits with the Chinese and other trading partners. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The contradictions at the heart of U.S. economic policy
The Trump administration’s policies will cause the trade and current account deficits to widen, not narrow. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Bond market volatility and the Federal Reserve
It is time for the Fed to drop its over-emphasis on data dependency and move to a more strategic view that takes into account the risks to the outlook that will be front and center this year and next. … READ MORE >
To understand rising rates and volatility, look to regime change in global economy
Gone is the era of low inflation, low interest rates, a global savings glut and sagging aggregate demand. In its place is a new framework featuring scarce capital, insufficient aggregate supply, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The political economy of demographic growth
Underlying demographic realities show that those current policy preferences for immigration restrictions stand at cross-purposes with the needs of the U.S. economy.
… READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Modeling the impact of tariffs
A simple exercise that assumes tariffs of 25% across the board and 60% on Chinese goods implies that the U.S. economy over the next decade would be approximately 2% smaller than it otherwise would be. … READ MORE >