Housing starts and building permits pulled back in September after a red-hot August, suggesting that the road to a housing market rebound won’t be smooth, even as interest rates drop. The market remains demand-driven, with the current and future supply of new homes staying below the threshold for a ... READ MORE >
Economics
September retail sales top forecasts
American consumers remained upbeat about the economy in September as spending at retail stores and online exceeded consensus forecasts. Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. Our forecasts had called for a 0.5% increase for both numbers, so the ... READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
One of the more underdiscussed economic developments following the shocks of the pandemic has been the outperformance of the United States economy compared with its G-7 peers. Over the past eight quarters, the American economy has grown at a 2.9% annualized pace and is on track to grow at or above ... READ MORE >
Canada’s Consumer Price Index falls to 1.6%; calling for more rate cuts
Canada’s Consumer Price Index fell to 1.6%, the smallest increase since February 2021, mainly thanks to lower gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.4% in September after falling 0.2% in August, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday; both declines were due to lower ... READ MORE >
Canadian firms in an era of a higher cost of capital
Even with the recent uptick in hiring, the Canadian economy remains in a slump, with sparse activity in the financial markets, slow hiring and lackluster investments. In response, the Bank of Canada is cutting interest rates—three times since June, with more reductions on the way. It’s only a ... READ MORE >
Canada added 47,000 jobs in September as jobless rate fell to 6.5%
Canada's economy showed resilience in September, adding 47,000 jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent—the first drop since January. The increase in jobs, the largest since April, gives confidence that Canada can maintain a soft landing until the Bank of Canada's rate cuts, which began in ... READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The U.S. economy generated 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% as growth continues to barrel along at or above a 3% pace. When taken out to three digits, the jobless rate was 4.051%, which means it narrowly missed the Federal Reserve’s 4% ... READ MORE >