Service-sector activity contracted in May for the first time since June 2024, falling to 49.9 and confirming our expectations ahead of the Institute for Supply Management’s report on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Economics
Market Minute: Empty containers are piling up at Los Angeles-area ports
Based on discussions with those in our professional network and a visit to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, we expect that the plunge in imports will begin showing up in the real economy during the first two weeks of July. … READ MORE >
Job openings surpass expectations but labor market shows signs of stress
Job openings held up in April, rising above market expectations with a boost from the service sector. The total number of openings rose to 7.39 million from 7.2 million in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar and yields diverge as investors shy from long-dated debt
Rising risk around tariffs, slower growth, higher inflation and lower rates are creating conditions where investors appear to be shying away from long-dated debt. … READ MORE >
Tariffs weigh on manufacturing and construction
The impact of tariffs on manufacturing activity was in full force in May, according to business executives surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management, as falling demand and rising prices occurred simultaneously. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Mentions of tariffs soar in earnings transcripts of middle market firms
Since last August, total mentions of tariffs in earning transcripts of Russell 3000 firms have increased from 91 to 5,071 in May using a three-month moving average. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy grows 0.5% in 1st quarter due to exports, but challenges loom
Canada’s economy grew in the first quarter largely due to pre-tariff efforts, but ongoing uncertainty means the economy is expected to contract next quarter. … READ MORE >
U.S. spending and inflation ease as companies slam the brakes on imports
American spending moderated in April as U.S. businesses pulled back significantly on imports after months of pulling forward economic activity to avoid higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Can businesses absorb the cost of tariffs?
Wherever the effective tariff rate ends up, any reduction in margins because of the significant increase in trade taxes will result in reduced growth, higher inflation and rising unemployment. … READ MORE >
Rising continuing claims and falling profits signal labor market strain
Since April, the number of continuing claims has broken the 1.9 million threshold twice, including last week—a level higher than any seen in 2019, before the pandemic. … READ MORE >