Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
Economics
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
What’s behind the slowdown in construction hiring?
The October jobs report would seem to represent a peak in the construction industry as builders added only 1,000 jobs. But is more at play? … READ MORE >
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersized interest rate hike next month. … READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Total employment increased by 261,000 jobs in October, which brought the total gain in employment this year to 4 million positions. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >