The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >
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Canadian housing data shows growing imbalances amid economic tension
Canada’s housing starts appear steady at first glance—but below that surface-level stability, there are growing imbalances at the provincial level. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s trade diversification away from U.S. as tariff pain remains
Canada’s latest trade data provides an indicator of the diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets as tariff tensions continue to simmer between the longtime trade partners. In March, Canada’s merchandise exports to countries other than the U.S. surged by 24.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis—the second-largest increase in recorded … … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 2.75% as uncertainty mounts
The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate amid rising inflation expectations and trade policy uncertainty. The bank will need to consider growth over inflation concerns as recession risks rise. … READ MORE >
Canada’s CPI slows amid rising Buy Canadian movement, cooling global outlook
Canada’s latest consumer price index data shows the influence of the Buy Canadian movement and the effects of global economic uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as more pain looms due to U.S. tariffs
Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March as U.S. tariffs came into effect. Expect more layoffs in the coming months as tariffs cause widespread economic pains. … READ MORE >
Year ahead in Canada: Return to growth as rate cuts take hold
The Canadian economy is expected to grow at around two per cent in 2025 as unemployment falls and price stability is restored. … READ MORE >