With higher tariffs likely under the incoming Trump administration, businesses are already making decisions in a way that will affect economic growth and reshape the global economy. We are already getting questions on pulling forward expected orders for durable goods to avoid the increase in ... READ MORE >
Industrials
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The mixed signals from data on job openings and the ISM manufacturing index, both released on Tuesday, offer a nuanced picture of the economy as the Federal Reserve transitions to a period to lower rates. During the transition of interest rates, not everything will go in the same direction. Elevated ... READ MORE >
Robust economic revisions defy recession doubts
While many are concerned that the economy is heading toward a recession, new data on spending and the labor market suggest otherwise. It's hard to bet against the American economy when the most recent data has surprised to the upside. Significant revisions to income and gross domestic product from 2020 ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector jobs dipped in August
The manufacturing sector lost 24,000 jobs in August, following an upward-adjusted addition of 6,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using a three-month moving average, manufacturing job additions have maintained a breakeven pattern for the past two and a half years but with the ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector declines at a slightly slower rate in August
The manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth month in a row with both production and new orders being a significant drag, according to the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index. Even though the Federal Reserve has signaled a policy pivot to lower interest rates, the sector ... READ MORE >
Demand for business spending on equipment falls in July
Business spending on durable equipment did not start the third quarter on a strong note. Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense spending and are a better proxy for short-term business investment in new equipment, decline by 0.1% in July. Shipments of core capital goods fell even ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector weakens in June
Manufacturing sentiment fell into contraction in June after only three months of barely growing, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday. As the Federal Reserve continues to hold interest rates at an elevated level, demand for manufacturing goods has been dampened for most of the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Malaise continues in June
The best that can be said about manufacturing activity in five regional Federal Reserve banks is that it has moved more or less sideways over the past three months. This lackluster performance is consistent with the global slowdown in economic activity that is a response to tight monetary policies and ... READ MORE >
Slower growth raises prospect of a Fed rate cut
Economic growth appeared much softer in the first five months of the year following the release of key economic data on Thursday. Slower-than-anticipated growth should push the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates. Read more of RSM's insights on the economy, manufacturing and the middle ... READ MORE >
The de-risking of world trade: Industrial policy in an era of changing political economy
The death knell of globalization and free trade has been sounded over the past several years as nations have imposed tariffs and embraced industrial policies to protect vital industries. For the past five decades, the economics of efficiency has dominated the trade and financial framework. The logic ... READ MORE >