The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
Inflation
U.S. households pull forward spending as PCE inflation remains sticky
Households are preparing for what they believe will be another price shock caused by an increase in the costs of goods through a policy-induced trade shock. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level since early 2023
Most notably, inflation expectations worsened, with the 12-month gauge advancing to 4.9% and the five-to-10 metric increasing to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The policy determinants of the rising euro
The euro is poised to appreciate against the dollar as the continent loosens fiscal restraints to rebuild its defenses. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
Businesses, and the economy overall, face uncertainty amid the regime change in the global economy. … READ MORE >
Producer inflation topped forecasts in January, led by food and energy prices
The producer price index rose by 0.4% in January, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in December, making it the hottest two-month stretch of inflation since February last year. … READ MORE >
Inflation accelerates in January amid concerns about rising expectations
The CPI data for January will feed into expectations that the Fed is done cutting rates just as policy uncertainty on trade and immigration is likely to feed into rising inflation expectations.
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Market minute: The problem of sticky and stubborn inflation
While housing inflation is easing, owners’ equivalent rent remains one of the two major catalysts for rising cost pressures on American households. … READ MORE >
U.S. households show robust gains on spending and income
Robust income and spending gains continue to underscore a strong economy that is benefiting not only from real income gains but also from rising equity and home prices. … READ MORE >
To understand rising rates and volatility, look to regime change in global economy
Gone is the era of low inflation, low interest rates, a global savings glut and sagging aggregate demand. In its place is a new framework featuring scarce capital, insufficient aggregate supply, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >