The consumer price index increased by 0.9% in March and by 3.3% compared to a year ago as the energy shock began to be felt in the American economy. … READ MORE >
Inflation
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
What the ceasefire in Iran means for the UK economy
It reduces the risk of a further sharp rise in energy prices, should limit the rise in inflation, will reduce the impetus for rate hikes and reduces the risk of recession. However, another bout of stagflation for the UK still looks unavoidable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The right, and wrong, way to ease UK energy prices
The challenge for policymakers is to do it in a way that preserves incentives while protecting the most vulnerable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil shock, affordability and the American public
Top-line inflation is likely to increase to between 3.5% and 4%, which will carry with it second- and third-order effects even if the conflict ends soon. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as war raises uncertainty
The evolving oil shock has raised uncertainty in the economy, which will result in a period of risk management by the central bank. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Great expectations and inflation dynamics
For years, near-term public expectations of inflation were largely discounted in favor of longer-term indicators. Not anymore. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Lofty jet fuel costs to curb travel
Jet fuel costs have increased by 81% since the start of the war in Iran and are up by 124% this year. a surge in airfares is imminent. … READ MORE >