The increase in defense spending is boosting GDP and the labor market, but also adding pressure to inflation. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Market Minute: What does the Dallas Fed trimmed mean tell us about inflation?
Investors will be looking at alternative measures like the Dallas Fed PCE trimmed mean, one of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s preferred inflation metrics. … READ MORE >
Inflation peaked in May—but return to pre-war levels not coming soon
While it is highly likely that U.S. inflation peaked in May, one should not anticipate a return to pre-war levels of inflation any time soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Why so hawkish?
A simple look at PCE, core PCE, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and core PPI illustrates that they all reside above the current federal funds policy rate, not to mention the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. … READ MORE >
Fed tilts hawkish as Warsh promises price stability
While we think that the July FOMC meeting will be a status quo event, the September meeting will be a live policy meeting where the committee could see movement toward a rate hike if not an outright increase. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: At the FOMC meeting, a rate hike to be determined later
Recent events have caused a reset of investor expectations regarding what and when the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Warsh will face a searing credibility test
How will the new Fed chair balance his stated receptiveness to rate cuts with the recent rise in inflation? … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Gas price volatility is an echo of past crises
Most recently, in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused disruptions to the energy supply chain, sending gasoline prices 60% higher. … READ MORE >
Inflation outpaced wage growth in May as CPI rose by 4.2%
Inflation in May pushed past 4% for the first time in more than three years because of rising energy, gasoline, transportation and airfare costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock, CPI and falling real wages
Our forecast for the May consumer price index implies an increase of 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago, along with a decline in real wages of 0.8% over the past 12 months … READ MORE >