New filings for jobless claims inched up by 1.8% last week to 230,000, remaining above the pre-pandemic level for the fifth week in a row. There is no doubt that the labor market has been slowing down as more companies reassess their hiring plans. It has also become clear that the bottom in initial ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Bank of Canada increases policy rate to 4.25%
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% on Wednesday, the seventh consecutive increase since March. In our estimation, the Bank of Canada is nearing the end of a rate hike cycle that we expect will peak at 4.75%. The Federal Reserve, by contrast, will almost certainly ... READ MORE >
U.S. service sector grows, adding pressure on Fed
The Institute for Supply Management's service index rose in November as business activities increased on the month. The unexpectedly strong purchasing managers survey data, released on Monday, added more pressure on the Federal Reserve as focuses on taming inflation, especially in services. The ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Recession on the horizon
Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. For some time, our forecast has included a 65% probability of recession over the next 12 months. Next year, we expect a 0.1% decline in ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
Expectations that wage growth would slow were dashed inside the U.S. jobs report for November as average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. The primary policy takeaway from the report is that the Federal ... READ MORE >
Canada job gains slow in November
The Canadian economy added 10,100 jobs in November, easing some of the concerns over an overheating labor market after a blockbuster October jobs report. The data might prove that October's robust job gains was an aberration. Still, the implications regarding the central bank's fight against inflation ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The manufacturing sector grew for the 30th month in a row but barely hovered above contraction in November, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. The ISM’s overall index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight ... READ MORE >
Spending holds strong as inflation moderates in October
Overall demand remained robust as holiday shopping kicked off in October, according to data on inflation, spending and income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. Spending rose by 0.8% while income increased by 0.7%. After adjusting for inflation, real spending rose by 0.5% ... READ MORE >
Job openings and quits continue to moderate
Job openings fell in October to 10.3 million, continuing to signal moderation in labor demand amid the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike campaign. Since its peak in March, when the Fed began increasing rates, the number of job vacancies has dropped by almost 13% as the impact of the tightening has ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Sentiment sours even as activity remains stout
Manufacturing sentiment continued to decline in November, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, driven by notable decelerations in the Philadelphia and Dallas regions. Firms in the New York, Richmond and Kansas City regions reported slight improvements over last month, though they ... READ MORE >