Most recently, in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused disruptions to the energy supply chain, sending gasoline prices 60% higher. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Inflation outpaced wage growth in May as CPI rose by 4.2%
Inflation in May pushed past 4% for the first time in more than three years because of rising energy, gasoline, transportation and airfare costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock, CPI and falling real wages
Our forecast for the May consumer price index implies an increase of 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago, along with a decline in real wages of 0.8% over the past 12 months … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Sticky service sector inflation
The increase in service sector prices pre-dated the recent supply shock and is part of a broader rise in inflation and interest rates., … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Inflation heats up as stress on households grows
The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Market minute: ECB to raise rates in June
Our assessment implies that, given the current global supply shock, the ECB’s monetary policy is too accommodative. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising real yields and the cost of capital
Since March 1, real yields have increased by 38 basis points on the 10-year Treasury, to 2.07%, and by 20 basis points on the 30-year, to 2.74%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation embedded in the fabric of our lives
Repercussions from the supply shock continue to spread, with cross-market implications for both synthetic and organic fibers that will disrupt global apparel supply chains. … READ MORE >
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >