Miles driven usually peaks in the middle of the summer, but this year, that number has steadily fallen compared to last year. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Strong top-line retail sales mask weakness as producer prices rise
Taken together, the reports on retail sales and producer prices for September point to an uncomfortable mix: Prices are rising faster while underlying demand is losing steam. … READ MORE >
Rising inflation in September shows more evidence of triple supply shock
With CPI rising by 0.6% on the month and by 3.7% compared to a year ago, it is clear that the central bank will need to act to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
India’s inflation accelerates as food and energy rise
Rising food prices and higher energy costs are pushing inflation closer to the top of the Indian central bank’s tolerance range, increasing the risk that price pressures will persist into next year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: As CPI stays elevated, real wages decline
The Consumer Price Index for September is likely to increase by 0.6% on the month and by 3.6% annually when the data is released on Oct. 14. … READ MORE >
India’s inflation shock adds pressure on central bank
We expect the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% at its next meeting, while emphasizing that subsequent moves will remain dependent on the evolution of inflation and the energy shock. … READ MORE >
Expansion accelerates as inflation remains elevated
Household spending strengthened in September, and revised second-quarter gross domestic product shows the economy entered midyear on firmer footing than initially estimated. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rate hikes coming to a central bank near you
We expect global central banks to raise their policy rates to counter the energy shock and the inflation that is once more taking hold. … READ MORE >
What do higher yields look like? Our model shows their impact.
We modeled a serios of shocks to identify the impact on growth, employment and inflation. The results show the challenge of bringing down inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: In surging bond issuance, a recipe for higher rates
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is testing 5% for the first time since 2007, while investment-grade corporate bonds are yielding close to 6.5%. … READ MORE >