The increase in service sector prices pre-dated the recent supply shock and is part of a broader rise in inflation and interest rates., … READ MORE >
Inflation
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Inflation heats up as stress on households grows
The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Market minute: ECB to raise rates in June
Our assessment implies that, given the current global supply shock, the ECB’s monetary policy is too accommodative. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising real yields and the cost of capital
Since March 1, real yields have increased by 38 basis points on the 10-year Treasury, to 2.07%, and by 20 basis points on the 30-year, to 2.74%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation embedded in the fabric of our lives
Repercussions from the supply shock continue to spread, with cross-market implications for both synthetic and organic fibers that will disrupt global apparel supply chains. … READ MORE >
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation swaps are underpricing risk of rising CPI
We expect April’s top-line CPI to increase by 0.7% on the month and by 3.7% from one year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock comes home to India
Two months into the U.S.-Iran war, India is experiencing a classic external supply shock that is depressing growth and elevating inflation. India enters FY27 with exceptional structural economic advantages: 7.6% growth in its economy, reduced U.S. tariffs, a strong services export base of $418 billion, and healthy foreign exchange reserves … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are you experienced?
Households in the U.S. and Canada, whose economies have become net exporters of oil, have not been spared the rising cost of gasoline and diesel. … READ MORE >