A neutral federal funds rate in the range of a 3% to 3.5% nominal rate is more appropriate than the zero real (inflation-adjusted) terminal rate that some are calling for. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Dude, that was one flawed CPI report
Growth in inflation eased to a 2.7% pace overall, and to 2.6% excluding food or energy. Because of an inability to retroactively collect the October data, it is difficult to precisely identify why top-line inflation slowed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect November CPI to show 0.3% monthly increase
We expect both the top-line and core readings of the consumer price index to rise by 3% rise from a year ago when the data is released Thursday. … READ MORE >
The growth of government debt and its consequences for financial markets
The United States is borrowing roughly $7 billion per day to finance its operations with the deficit heading toward $2 trillion this fiscal year. … READ MORE >
Fed delivers hawkish cut, raising the bar for future reductions
The tone and tenor of the FOMC’s statement and remarks by Chairman Jerome Powell afterward substantially raised the bar for a rate cut in January. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Deteriorating expectations on inflation and household finances
The Federal Reserve will have a difficult choice of either fighting inflation or hoping to revive a sluggish labor market when it meets this week. … READ MORE >
Consumer spending in September was flat with holiday season approaching
Recent consumer spending data shows that the condition of U.S. households down market is sour at best and weak at worst. … READ MORE >
Retail sales fall below forecasts as demand slows
The shift in the spending cycle because of tariffs might explain why consumers pulled back in September after front-running new tariffs over the summer. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts its policy rate and sets end to quantitative tightening
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% on Wednesday while announcing an end to its runoff of its $6.58 trillion balance sheet by Dec. 1. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate again in attempt to spur sluggish economy
Canada’s economy is slowing to the point that the Bank of Canada was comfortable making another interest-rate cut as it lowered its policy rate to 2.25 per cent. … READ MORE >