Restoring price stability is now the paramount policy goal at the Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell went out of his way on Friday to point out the lessons of the high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, and the sacrifice it took to wring it out of the economy after years of delays. "Our aim is to ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Powell at Jackson Hole: From era of abundance to one of insufficient supply
The pandemic has been the catalyst for a seismic shift in the American economy as it shifts from an era of abundance to one of insufficient supply. For households, this implies a shift from what we call rational inattention regarding consumption to a more rational approach to spending. As ... READ MORE >
Spending remains steady on strong income growth and inflation relief
U.S. personal income and spending in July signaled a gradual rebound of the economy in the third quarter after six months of declines in gross domestic product. The catalyst was a combination of a tight labor market with steady wage income growth and a sharp drop in inflation on the back of falling ... READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. In the best-case scenario, the Fed, by raising rates, reduces discretionary spending enough to stabilize prices, and the economy continues to ... READ MORE >
RSM U.S. Supply Chain Index: Back to normal for first time since pandemic hit
The U.S. Supply Chain Index in July was back above neutral for the first time in nearly three years on the back of the continuing strong rebounds in inventories and capacity utilization. With most of the COVID-19 concerns behind us and the renormalization of supply-chain linkages around the world, we ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise as producer inflation deflates for first time in 2 years
New claims for U.S. jobless benefits rose 5.6% in the first week of August to 262,000 as layoffs continued to pick up, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. While there has been a clear upward trend in new unemployment claims, the number remained relatively low compared to the ... READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand
Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. Since January, total employment has increased by 3.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has declined from 4% to 3.5%. With such a robust labor market, claims that the economy is in recession fall ... READ MORE >
American spending and income eroded by multi-decade high inflation
American consumer spending barely kept up with price gains in June as the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index—reached a new multi-decade high, according to government data released Friday. Additionally, personal income declined for the first time since ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
The Federal Reserve’s price stability campaign advanced at its Wednesday meeting via a hike in the federal funds policy rate by 75 basis points to a range between 2.25 and 2.5%. The central bank stuck to its pace of balance sheet reduction. At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in ... READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Central banks in developed economies are contending with a series of shocks that have threatened price stability and, ultimately, economic growth. Now, these shocks, which include inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil, are all showing up in fixed income markets. With consumer ... READ MORE >