The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 69 in the first half of September, up from 67.9 earlier. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Producer inflation and initial jobless claims stabilize further
While the producer price index came out slightly higher than forecasted at 0.3% on the month and 1.7% on a year-ago basis, it remained on a moderating trend with July’s number being revised down. … READ MORE >
U.S. August CPI: Further signs of moderation as energy prices decline
Inflation inside the consumer price index continued to moderate in August as the top-line figure increased by 0.2% on the month and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Financial markets update: Front-running the Fed’s first cut, and our new call on rates
We are updating our year-end rate call to 3.7% on the 10-year yield with risk of a move lower as growth, inflation and hiring cool. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
The American economy is poised to grow at or above the long-term 1.8% rate as the Fed begins its rate-cutting campaign, which should put a floor under growth and hiring. … READ MORE >
Second quarter GDP is revised higher amid stronger consumer spending
With price stability essentially achieved, a well-performing labor market should continue to be a significant tailwind for growth, especially for consumer spending, in the last two quarters of the year. … READ MORE >
The TIPS bond market sees 2.1% inflation over the next 10 years
The recent drop in both Treasury yields and TIPS yields are adding credence to the success of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to squeeze inflation out of the economy. … READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation fell to 2.5 per cent, solidifying case for rate cut
Inflation numbers have consistently come in below expectations this year and is firmly on track to reach 2 per cent next year. … READ MORE >
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >