A year that was set to benefit from tailwinds associated with a large tax cut and a boom in artificial intelligence investment has been partially offset by the supply shock. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Producer inflation rises less than forecast
March producer prices rose by 0.5%, driven largely by energy costs. Oil prices have eased since, but supply disruptions are unlikely to fade anytime soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: When the consumer speaks, it is a good idea to listen
Consumer sentiment turned sour in March, with the University of Michigan survey dropping below neutral for the first time in the post-financial crisis era. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The cost of failed ceasefire talks in Iran
The announcement of a naval blockade of shipping out of the Persian Gulf will only worsen the shortages of oil, natural gas, distillates, other liquids and refined products. … READ MORE >
March CPI: Patience and pain are the policy pathway
The consumer price index increased by 0.9% in March and by 3.3% compared to a year ago as the energy shock began to be felt in the American economy. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
What the ceasefire in Iran means for the UK economy
It reduces the risk of a further sharp rise in energy prices, should limit the rise in inflation, will reduce the impetus for rate hikes and reduces the risk of recession. However, another bout of stagflation for the UK still looks unavoidable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The right, and wrong, way to ease UK energy prices
The challenge for policymakers is to do it in a way that preserves incentives while protecting the most vulnerable. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil shock, affordability and the American public
Top-line inflation is likely to increase to between 3.5% and 4%, which will carry with it second- and third-order effects even if the conflict ends soon. … READ MORE >