The evolving oil shock has raised uncertainty in the economy, which will result in a period of risk management by the central bank. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Market Minute: Great expectations and inflation dynamics
For years, near-term public expectations of inflation were largely discounted in favor of longer-term indicators. Not anymore. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Lofty jet fuel costs to curb travel
Jet fuel costs have increased by 81% since the start of the war in Iran and are up by 124% this year. a surge in airfares is imminent. … READ MORE >
Does tapping oil reserves reduce gas prices?
The U.S. consumes roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day. Even the most aggressive release, like in 2022, amounts to only a few weeks of supply. … READ MORE >
February CPI report: Beware the Ides of March
Investors should anticipate rising inflation in March as the impact of the war in the Middle East and surging energy prices is felt in the economy. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: War, oil and inflation swaps
With oil exceeding $100 a barrel over the weekend, it won’t be until the March CPI report is released in April that the impact of the conflict will become clear. … READ MORE >
Economic implications of war in Middle East
In today’s American economy, spikes in oil prices do not present significant downside risk to top-line economic growth or inflation that they did a half century ago. … READ MORE >
Producer prices rise faster in January as inflation concerns mount
Producer prices rose by 0.5% in January, up from 0.4% in December and marking a steady acceleration from the soft readings in October and November. … READ MORE >
Inflation cooled in January, but don’t declare victory yet
Underneath the modest headline number, one can observe notable turn-of-the-year price increases in goods sensitive to tariffs and services. … READ MORE >