Consumer confidence rose in December to the highest level in five months as sentiment on both the current and future situations improved markedly. The data from the Conference Board released on Wednesday adds to a string of economic data in recent months that supports further sustained expansion in the ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Inflation in Canada stayed steady at 3.1%
Canada’s inflation in November failed to make progress, staying steady at 3.1%. But core inflation apart from housing and food continued to trend lower and came in around 3.5%, markedly lower than earlier this year. Food and housing remain primary drivers of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, ... READ MORE >
Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. The Fed also reduced its inflation forecast for next year to 2.8% from 3.3%, and to 2.4% from 2.5% for 2025, which ... READ MORE >
U.S. November Consumer Price Index: Inflation continues to abate
Inflation continued to abate in November as energy prices declined by 2.3% and gasoline prices dropped by 6%, resulting in a 0.1% monthly advance in the Consumer Price Index and a 3.1% annual increase. Over the past three months, the decline in top-line inflation implies that the overall rate is ... READ MORE >
U.S. November jobs report: This is what a soft landing looks like
This is what a soft landing looks like. Through November this year, the American economy has produced nearly 2.6 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2%, all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. This is not a recession but instead is a sustained expansion amid labor ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. While the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep its policy statement largely unchanged, that statement ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds at 5% as excess demand is stomped out
In an acknowledgment of the economy's surprise contraction in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday shifted its tone on monetary policy from hawkish to neutral as it held its policy rate steady at 5 per cent. A series of gradual rate cuts from the current 5% is in order starting in April ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >
U.S. October consumer price index: Further evidence of disinflation
If one was looking for evidence of a soft landing and a sustained economic expansion, look no further than the October consumer price index. Disinflation inside the October consumer price index caused by falling commodity, oil and gasoline prices resulted in no increase in inflation on the month ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted. But the market and the Federal Reserve should be able to look through those surprises that were largely a short-lived reaction to elevated gasoline ... READ MORE >