The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Falling jobless claims and firmer inflation point to slower rate cuts
It will most likely will take longer for the Fed to get to its destination of a 2.9% policy rate as it forecast in September. … READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
One-time special factors and ongoing sticky shelter and service prices combined to cause an increase of 2.6% in the consumer price index in October. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment in November rises to highest level since April
According to the University of Michigan’s survey in November, the sentiment index increased to 73 from 70.5 with expectations leading the increase. … READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue to increase. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts rates by half point amid slow growth
We expect the policy rate to fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of the year and return to a terminal rate of 2.75 per cent in the first half of 2025. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises on improved outlook for inflation and spending
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 69 in the first half of September, up from 67.9 earlier. … READ MORE >