Canada's consumer price index report for April offers a clear message for the Bank of Canada: A rate cut in June is a no brainer. Headline inflation fell to 2.7 per cent, within the 1 per cent to 3 per cent range for the fourth month in a row and the lowest since early 2021, a full year before this ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Forecasts show softer April PCE inflation
Details from April’s consumer price index and producer price index reports this week implied a slightly softer month for the personal consumption expenditures index. We think the top-line PCE inflation will most likely come in at 0.25% for April, down from 0.30% in March, while the core index will slow ... READ MORE >
CPI resumes disinflationary trend in April amid weakened retail sales
The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve's effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Retail sales, in another key report released on Wednesday, indicated a much weaker April, explaining the extended ... READ MORE >
Producer price offers mixed result ahead of CPI release
The producer price index increased by 0.5% in April, above estimates, as both goods and services prices accelerated, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Tuesday. The increase, however, was offset by a downward revision to March’s number, from a 0.2% increase to a 0.1% decline. That ... READ MORE >
Intervening in foreign exchange markets: The poverty of dollar devaluation
The United States has become a magnet for global capital as investors flock to its resilient economy because of interest rate and growth differentials between the U.S. and its major trading partners and a structural budget deficit featuring robust spending on infrastructure, supply chain resilience and ... READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as rebound in inflation hampers progress
Citing a lack of progress in reducing inflation, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday, the same rate it has had since July. The policy rate continues to be highly restrictive and will keep the economy cool in the coming quarters. In the statement ... READ MORE >
American consumers continue to spend despite sticky inflation
Spending remained strong in March on the heels of robust income growth despite sticky inflation, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. The data pointed to the underlying strength of the economy and provided a rebuttal of sorts to the disappointing gross domestic product figure ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds its rate at 5% in dovish statement
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% at its meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected, while continuing its restrictive monetary policy of quantitative tightening. But the central bank made a marked shift in its statement, turning from a focus on inflation to one on growth with a decidedly ... READ MORE >
Hot inflation data dims prospects for a Fed rate cut in June
The U.S. consumer price index came in above expectations for March, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position as it seeks to starting cutting interest rates this year. Both overall and core inflation remained unchanged at 0.4% monthly, the third consecutive month that the overall CPI ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
While it’s always good to identify risks to the economic outlook, too often market players mistake the condition of a few trees—there are always isolated problems—with the health of the forest. The March jobs report shows just how healthy the American labor market is, despite isolated criticisms. ... READ MORE >