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Initial claims reflect remarkable job security in American economy

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Initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ending March 30 show that American workers continue to have remarkable job security. First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week, which was modestly above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average, which stood at 211,000.

Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.

Firms continue to face a historically tight labor market and must manage their workforce carefully. For workers, this jobs market is the best in a half century, with wages outpacing inflation which we expect to be reflected in the March jobs report.

We expect a 4.1% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis when the jobs report is released on Friday.

Jobless claims

Continuing claims eased to 1.79 million from 1.81 million during the previous week, which implies that people continue to find jobs quite easily. The monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data suggests that workers who lose a job are finding employment typically within two to three months.

At the state level, there was no outlier with respect to large increases and there was not a significant increase in Maryland, which will most likely see layoffs following the Port of Baltimore’s effective shutdown.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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