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Initial jobless claims climb amid holiday volatility

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First-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 to 224,000 last week, in line with the 13-week moving average of 226,000 and a sign of a labor market where workers have a remarkable level of job security.

With arrival of the holiday season, though, top-line claims will show volatility in the coming weeks. It will not be until the new year that the weekly claims data provides a clean look at the pace of firings.

Initial jobless claims

Continuing claims eased to 1.871 million last week even as there is a clear trend toward longer-run unemployment among those actively looking for work.

Longer-term unemployment is an evolving puzzle in an economy that can be characterized as being at full employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

The share of workers who have been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer is 40.4% of all those workers who are unemployed, an interesting development in an economy with such a strong labor market.

Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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