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Initial jobless claims remain below pre-pandemic level despite seasonal volatility

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New filings for jobless benefits last week advanced to 206,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic level from 2019 after falling to a 52-year low the week before at an upwardly revised 188,000—which many attributed to the seasonal adjustments around the holidays.

We expect the claims data to be highly volatile during the holidays and through Presidents’ Day in February.

Looking past the seasonal noise, we continue to see strong improvements in initial jobless claims—a proxy for layoffs—in recent months as employers scramble to retain workers.

Initial jobless claims

Our preferred measure—the 13-week moving average—pointed to a decline of 10,000 new claims to 272,000 for the week ending Dec. 11, marking the 41st week in a row of declines.

The current mismatch between labor demand and supply has forced businesses to hold on to their workers for a lot longer as labor shortages and a high quit rate persist.

The total number of claims for all benefit programs for the week ending Nov. 27 increased by 510,808 from the previous week to 2.46 million, a significant decline from 21.32 million a year ago.

All programs recorded increases in continuing claims, with the largest increase coming from state unemployment benefit programs, which rose by 403,150 for the week ending Nov. 26.

Continuing claims

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About Tuan Nguyen

@tuannguyen0709

Tuan Nguyen is an economist at RSM US LLP who analyzes high-frequency economic data within the United States and global economies to better understand the American middle market. Tuan’s data-driven economic analysis and insights enhance the ability of middle market companies to thrive in an increasingly competitive global economy. In December 2023, Nguyen and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Based in New York, Tuan works closely with the firm’s cutting-edge Industry Eminence Program to help senior analysts accelerate data-driven strategies in their line of business. His areas of focus include the comprehensive measurement framework for environmental, social and governance (ESG) financial reporting, as well as trends in behavioral, labor and network economics and in industrial organizations. Before joining RSM, he was a graduate researcher, lecturer and teaching assistant for the economics department of his alma mater, Northeastern University, where he taught macroeconomics, international economics and microeconomic theory.

Nguyen holds a Ph.D. in econometrics and quantitative economics from Northeastern University and holds a bachelor of arts in economics and international affairs from the University of New Hampshire, where he graduated summa cum laude and was recognized as an outstanding economics student.

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