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Initial jobless claims remain stable at 213,000

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First-time jobless claims remained remarkably stable at 213,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.9 million for the week ending Nov. 23.

Our preferred metric of first-time claims, the 13-week moving average, declined to 226,200 as the distortions of the two recent hurricanes eased, according to the Labor Department.

The underlying trend in first-time claims implies that firms continue to carefully manage their workforce amid an economy at full employment. During periods like these, those out of the workforce tend to experience longer bouts of unemployment as the churn in labor flows slows.

Initial jobless claims

This past week’s claims data will be the last clean report on the annual calendar because of holiday-induced distortions that affect the data through the end of the year.

We would urge policymakers, investors and firm managers to check back in around mid-January to get a sense of the trend in the pace of firings and continuing claims. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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