The focus on the trade deficit and the imposition of tariffs on imported goods appears to have undergone some rethinking recently.
Significantly higher tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, set to take effect on Jan. 1, have been put on hold, which will bolster the bottom lines of both importers and consumers.
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The quarterly national accounts (GDP) data show that imports of goods in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms dropped in the second quarter of 2025 and flattened out during the third quarter.
At the same time, exports of goods remained consistent, with a result of at best a flattening of net exports through the third quarter.
For a more up-to-date analysis that is not affected by the government shutdown, we can look at privately supplied shipping data to see not only a drop in imports, but also a drop in U.S. exports.
Imports on the West Coast have moderated…
Import containers from Asia processed at seaports along the Pacific Coast spiked in the second half of 2024 and again in 2025 as importers prepared for end-of-year consumer purchases.
But on a year-over-year basis, the growth rate moderated before turning negative in the last months of 2025.
There will be collateral damage to this decline with a drop in West Coast imports having a negative impact on employment in U.S. transportation and material-moving occupations.
Also at risk are small businesses affected by the drop in intermediate and final goods, which will affect household income.
… just as they have on the East Coast
Although more consistent, import containers processed at Atlantic and Gulf Coast seaports have been trending lower as well, with their growth rate steadily declining.
Exports on the West Coast have deteriorated …
Export activity along the Pacific Coast has been moderating since 2024, with a negative growth rate in all but two of the 11 months reported in 2025.
… while growth has moderated on the East Coast
Export activity along Atlantic and Gulf Coasts have been moderating since 2024 as well, with growth slowing in 2025. A spike in November was aided by the sharp drop in port activity during the 2024 hurricane season.
We would expect Gulf Coast exports to be sustained by exports of natural gas and petroleum products.
The takeaway
The experiment with tariffs is far from over. Still, the shift in U.S. trade policy is likely to have an adverse impact on both U.S. imports of goods and the appetitie for U.S. exports by trading partners.
