Inflation continued to move at or near the top of its pandemic-induced pace in September with the overall Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 5.4% on an annual basis as supply chain disruptions fueled increases for the sixth consecutive month. Sectors that are sensitive to ... READ MORE >
Search Results for: inflation
Consumer Price Index: Inflation eased in August, but it’s too soon to declare victory
Score a victory for team transitory in the inflation wars. The Consumer Price Index eased in August, reaffirming our view that inflation most likely formed a peak in the summer following the historic supply shock that defined pandemic economics starting last year. Top-line inflation eased to 5.3% on a ... READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Inflation expectations remain subdued
In the modern era of monetary policy and moderate growth, global authorities have shown twice in the past decade their ability to counter horrific shocks to the financial sector and economic activity. Therefore, inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored despite the recent five-month surge in ... READ MORE >
July Consumer Price Index: Inflation moderates and likely posts cyclical peak at 5.4%
The five-month surge in inflation has most likely resulted in a cyclical peak, reaching 5.4% in July on the back of a 0.5% increase on the month. The core Consumer Price Index excluding the more volatile food and energy components increased by 0.3% on the month and by 4.3% on a year-ago basis, ... READ MORE >
Inflation and small firms: The restaurant squeeze is on
The recent surge in inflation is now a significant issue for smaller firms, and nowhere is this more evident than in the restaurant industry. While large firms can hedge volatility and medium-size firms can increase efficiencies to mitigate price increases, smaller firms don’t have as many ... READ MORE >
Four ways retailers and restaurants can manage current inflation and labor pressures
As the economic recovery from the pandemic-induced recession continues, consumer demand is high and the opportunity exists for a strong holiday retail and restaurant season. But these sectors are facing two significant headwinds: inflation and challenges finding qualified labor. During the recession, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation expectations remain rational and muted
A look at one of our preferred measurements of inflation expectations implies that the risk of a sustained outbreak of inflation is receding just as another set of inflation data—the Consumer Price Index for June—is set to publish on Tuesday. Inflation expectations play an important role in spending ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Yield spread flattens as inflation trade unwinds
The Federal Open Market Committee unleashed a sharp change in market expectations following its Wednesday meeting, helping to curtail inflation fears. The idea of the first rate hike being pulled forward into 2023 with a possibility of 2022 elicited a change in the inflation trade and a resetting of ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Growth and inflation and tapering, oh my!
The Federal Open Market Committee will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week, but that decision will mask an underlying shift in its economic projections and policies. Consider three areas where this shift is occurring: The dot plot, which shows committee members’ projections for ... READ MORE >
Inflation expectations: Have they reached a peak?
One major theme this year, as the American and global economies reopen, is the risk of rising prices. The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased from 0.91% at the start of the year to a high of 1.74% on March 31. But over the past month, that yield has moved back down and is likely to return toward 1.45% ... READ MORE >