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RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index indicates tempered growth

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The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index is starting to show cracks in the optimism of the past few months as the economy decelerates and the pandemic intensifies.

We expect the November ISM Manufacturing index, to be released Tuesday, to show slower growth with a top-line reading near 58.0.

All of the recent surveys of manufacturing sentiment conducted by the regional Federal Reserve banks reported diminished optimism, and two of the five (New York and Dallas) reported sentiment in November that is lower than what would normally be expected.

If there is a loss of confidence, it might be because an increase in durable goods orders has yet to materialize. Orders have been lower relative to orders in the previous year in 14 of the past 15 months through October and have yet to catch up to expectations.

For more information on how the coronavirus is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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