The ADP estimate for nonfarm private employment in October continued to show an increase in net job gains, led by a sharp rise from small service-providing companies as the delta variant’s surge crested. Still, large companies with more than 1,000 employees continued to account for the biggest ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: An inflation tantrum?
Financial markets around the world are reacting to the rising risk of inflation and the prospect of policy responses by central banks, all of which have led to a modest easing in our RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index. The Bank of Canada has already halted its bond purchase plan, the Reserve ... READ MORE >
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. By our estimate, the enhanced child tax credit, which provided direct payments to about 35 ... READ MORE >
The pandemic and the vanishing American worker
This is the fourth article in a series examining the transformation of the American workforce during the pandemic. Part I looked at what is driving this change, Part II looked at the rise of $15 an hour as the de facto minimum wage in the private sector and Part III discussed the surge in new business ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Holding steady
Financial conditions in the UK remain accommodative, signaling confidence that the policies of the monetary and fiscal authorities have created the framework for a sustained economic recovery. Ahead of the Bank of England’s critical decisions on policy normalization on Thursday, this should provide ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report preview: Expect a gain of 475,000 in October
When the October U.S. employment report is released on Friday, a central area of focus will be on the potential return of women in their prime working years to the labor force as the delta variant fades, child care becomes more available, schools reopen and hiring accelerates. We expect that the ... READ MORE >
Workers chart a different course as new business formations surge
This is the third article in a series examining the transformation of the American workforce during the pandemic. Part I looked at what is driving this change and Part II looked at the rise of $15 an hour as the de facto minimum wage in the private sector. One area of a dynamically changing domestic ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Tapering explained
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will focus on the Federal Reserve’s exit from its pandemic-era asset purchase program that has sent its balance sheet above $8.5 trillion. We expect that the Fed will announce plans to reduce its monthly monetary accommodation of $140 billion ... READ MORE >
GDP grows 2% as delta variant, supply chains and inflation take their toll
The delta variant, disruptions to global supply chains and inflation all took a powerful toll on U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter as the pace of growth slowed to 2% from 6.7% in the prior quarter. On a year-ago basis, GDP increased by 4.9%, while on a nominal basis, GDP expanded at ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims hit pandemic low as labor market recovers
New filings for jobless claims dropped to another pandemic low last week as jobs remain plentiful while employers continue to compete for employees. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell to 281,000 for the week ending Oct. 23, according to government data released Thursday. The same figure ... READ MORE >