An avalanche of spending is waiting to be unleashed by the American household. Add that to the expected investments by the corporate sector to improve productivity, and the result is a robust consensus forecast of 6.4% growth in gross domestic product – RSM predicts 7.5% – for this year. That number ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Housing is on fire
Housing starts skyrocketed 19.4% in March to 1.739 million, blowing past expectations of 1.613 million and well above the 1.5 million long-term equilibrium, according to government data released Friday. The robust increase is a reversal from February's dip, which in hindsight appears to have been ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: In retail sales data, consumers are ready to get out of the house
The strong retail sales data released on Thursday showed just how much pent-up demand exists among consumers as stimulus checks burn a hole their pockets and vaccinations allow for the economy to open up. People, it is clear, are ready to get out of the house. Among the strong categories in the ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Large decline as workers return
First-time jobless claims declined to 576,000 for the week ending April 10, which is the lowest since March 2020 as individuals begin streaming back into the labor force and the economy begins to reopen on the back of vaccinations and fiscal aid. In the past month, we pointed to coming volatility in ... READ MORE >
Robust rebound in March retail sales
The combined impact of a weather-related resumption of household spending and $680 billion in fiscal aid checks working their way through the economy stimulated a robust 9.8% rebound in top-line March retail sales. The control group, which feeds into the calculation of U.S. gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. food prices likely past pandemic peak
Early in the pandemic, one concern for U.S. households was the rising price of food amid widespread job losses, a reduction in hours worked and declining incomes. Now, one year later, that concern has eased as we gain some perspective on the trajectory of overall prices in general and food prices in ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rebound in rail freight is an early sign of recovery
Intermodal rail freight is in the midst of a strong recovery—another sign that the manufacturing sector and the economy have entered the early stages of a robust expansion this year. The American Association of Railroads cautions that year-over-year comparisons are inflated by shutdowns during the ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Inflation begins its temporary march upward
Increases in energy and transportation costs that were magnified by comparisons to last year’s economic downturn helped push the Consumer Price Index higher at an annual rate of 2.6% in March, according to government data released on Tuesday. The increase in the CPI, which was 0.6% on a monthly basis, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The CLO market is back
The market for collateralized loan obligations (CLO) is back in full swing after more or less freezing in March and April last year. The bulk of leveraged loans used to finance private equity buyouts generally end up packaged into CLO products, making the volume and pricing of new issuances in the CLO ... READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are signs that the business cycle has made a turn, bottoming out of a deep recession and moving into its next phase of sustained economic growth. As such, we have recently upgraded our forecast for 2021 real GDP growth to 7.5% (7.2% previously) on a year-over-year basis, a decline in the ... READ MORE >